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Opposition in Minsk is losing ground – Kommersant FM – Kommersant

“As long as I am president, I will pursue a tough policy of stabilization,” Alexander Lukashenko toughened up his rhetoric against the protesters, and Svetlana Tikhanovskaya called for continuing strikes. In the morning Lukashenka met with the heads of the security forces, and then went to the Dzerzhinsky agricultural complex and there declared that the protests in the country were “his problem” and he was going to solve it in the coming days.

He also said that several “centers of power” are operating against Belarus at once, and protests are fueled by the United States with the assistance of the Europeans: “I am the president of the country, God forbid, the country will rise, collapse, and you will not have work. You ask me. And I wanted to spit on all these positions, but I sit and think, and what will happen to those when they come and start to share all this, to chop – that is what worries me the most. And you can condemn me – not condemn me, as long as I am the president, I will pursue a tough policy to stabilize the situation inside the country ”.

Lukashenka recently called the recently created Opposition Coordinating Council a “black hundred”, and the security forces opened a case on an attempt to seize power and damage to the republic’s national security. Council members are summoned for questioning by investigators.

Protests in Belarus continue, but fewer and fewer people are participating. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, whom the opposition considers the elected president of Belarus, called for strikes: “I ask you to continue and expand the strikes. Don’t be fooled by intimidation. Unite. Our goals are simple: end the violence, free political prisoners, and hold new, transparent, free and fair elections. Together we are a force that no dictatorship can resist. “

There is no enthusiasm among Lukashenka’s opponents.

For example, one of the politicians who was denied registration for the presidential elections – Valery Tsepkalo – said that the opposition had failed to achieve its goals. Are there political leaders in Belarus who are able to achieve the transfer of power?

Kommersant FM asked this question to residents of Belarus. They said that the existing leaders will most likely not be able to do this:

“Tikhanovskaya is the legally elected president, this is already becoming obvious, especially when the platform“ Golos ”,“ Zubr ”united and published intermediate results. It is still difficult to say about the Coordination Council. Well, and I would like, frankly, to see some people closer to the authorities than just cultural figures, albeit very honored. Probably, only the name of Svetlana Alekseevich has a very positive effect. So far, unfortunately, no opposition leader is visible and who could really take the helm in the same Coordination Council for the peaceful transfer of power. ”

“If some kind of transit of power goes on, then great, we have people who can deal with this from the opposition. But on the one hand, they do not try to force them to do something, because for this they will immediately be jailed. On the other hand, they have no opportunity. That is, only the people, strikes and everything else can be forced. But in general, people themselves are engaged in this, the same factory workers, they rather support each other, or someone will write on Telegram, let’s go on strike, and they are: “Oh, yes, a good idea”. It is precisely to reach the point where the transfer of power will begin that the masses of the people can do. The leader is not that smart, maybe. “

“By the way, we know these people. Almost all of the advice is people who are highly respected. We have always seen their real actions. And people pray for them, because the power apparatus, of course, is very strong in our country. The Prosecutor General’s Office opened a criminal case against them. Naturally, Lukashenka does not want to give up power in any way. And I think that, to be honest, we will not do without help, including the Coordination Council, because there are a lot of violations. Everyone sees everything. But until the security forces go over to the side of the people, nothing will come of it. “

A new large-scale protest action in the center of Minsk is scheduled for Sunday. Does Lukashenko’s rhetoric mean that he is ready to try again to suppress the protests by force? Belarusian political scientist Valery Karbalevich told Kommersant FM that everything will depend on the number of demonstrators who come out to the action. Lukashenka’s threatening words are more of a rhetorical device.

“His rhetoric is aimed at showing that he is in control of the situation and at the same time intimidating all disaffected with repression. And, pay attention, every day Lukashenka meets with security officials, that is, this is his main support.

He, of course, would like to suppress all protests by force, but for some reason he does not dare. Apparently, he understands that it threatens with a lot of blood.

Are those very security officials ready to take on such responsibility?

At the same time, the fact that people will take to the streets next weekend is undoubtedly. The question is how much. How the power structures will act depends on him. If there are several thousand there, perhaps the authorities will use force. If there are 200-300 thousand, I can hardly imagine how such a number of people can be dispersed.

The opposition can regain the initiative through mass protests and pressure on local authorities. Mass rallies in Grodno forced the authorities to allow these rallies to be held in the center. But as soon as the number of protesters decreased, the authorities backed down and already banned this rally. Until then, even a live report on the local state TV channel came from this rally. This is the mechanism, it exists, ”the political scientist is sure.

Both the European Union and Russia urge not to interfere in the internal affairs of Belarus. At the same time, Brussels did not recognize the results of the presidential elections, and Moscow congratulated Lukashenka on his victory.

Sergey Gusev

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