The number of new infections with the corona virus is decreasing. But is the pandemic in Germany under control? Experts such as virologist Christian Drosten are warning of a second wave.
Restaurants are allowed to welcome guests again, fitness studios and outdoor pools are open, and holidays should soon also be possible abroad. With the current easing that goes Corona crisis into a new phase.
But that doesn’t mean security, experts say. Further waves of infection would hit Germany in the foreseeable future, according to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Virologists like Christian Drosten also see a high risk of further virus outbreaks. The most important questions about the so-called second wave:
What does “second wave” mean?
The second wave is a renewed increase in the number of infections. Regarding that Corona virus SARS-CoV-2 is feared that – despite the current stable situation in Germany – more people will become infected with the virus by the end of the year and new corona hotspots will arise. However, there is no clear definition and concrete figures for a second wave.
Will there be a second wave in Germany?
According to the RKI, the number of new infections is currently at a low level. The number of reproductions newly determined daily is below the critical mark of 1 – as of May 28th at 0.68. So each person would infect less than one other.
Nevertheless, the RKI believes that further contagion waves are likely. “This is a pandemic. And in a pandemic, this virus will cause illnesses until 60 to 70 percent of the population is infected, “said RKI President in a press conference at the beginning of May. The majority of scientists are certain that some expect a third wave themselves.
Charité virologist Prof. Christian Drosten Already in April warned of a new wave that could hit Germany with greater force than before.
What factors speak for a second wave?
According to scientists, there are several factors that could affect the outbreak of a second wave:
Relaxation of the corona rules: The nationwide easing could increase the risk of new infections. Recent local outbreaks in a church, restaurant, and slaughterhouses have shown how quickly the virus can spread. If these corona hotspots multiply, a second wave of viruses could become significantly more likely. If the number of infections then skyrockets, it becomes more difficult to keep track of contacts and the health system is at risk of being overloaded.
According to the RKI, human behavior is therefore the key factor in containing the coronavirus. The distance rules and hygiene requirements are still the most important to avoid further flare-ups.
Keep your distance: With a view to progressive easing and the upcoming vacation time, experts remind of the risk of a renewed increase in new corona infections. (Source: Daniel Bockwoldt / dpa)
Start of the holiday season: The restart of travel traffic could also cause a new increase in new corona infections. The infection numbers are currently looking good, said doctor and health researcher Max Geraedts from the University of Marburg to the German press agency dpa. But especially the travel time harbors the risk that the virus will spread even more widely than before, Geraedts explained – also to places that have so far been relatively spared.
Hajo Zeeb from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology in Bremen also said: “If you illustrate that only a very small proportion of the population has been immune so far, it is clear that the virus can spread again quickly if the conditions for it are vote.”
Experience from previous pandemics: Past pandemics and epidemics have shown a wave-like course. The Spanish flu, for example, hit people worldwide in three waves from 1918 to 1920. The influenza virus had changed slightly and was able to infect more people again.
It is not certain whether this applies to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. Because how a pandemic progresses always depends on the dynamics of the pathogen – and little is known about it so far.
When could a second wave come to Germany?
Most experts agree that a second wave of infections could reach Europe and Germany. There are different forecasts about the time of the outbreak.
The World Health Organization WHO believes a second wave of the pandemic is possible at any time if the countries loosen the restrictions too quickly. According to the WHO, European countries should already prepare for an increase in infections with SARS-CoV-2.
WHO European Director, Dr. Hans Kluge warned on May 27 in the British “Telegraph” of a second more deadly wave of the coronavirus, which is expected to hit “this winter” Europe Covid-19Cases in countries such as the UK, France and Italy have decreased, but this does not mean that the pandemic is coming to an end. The epicenter of the European outbreak is now in the east. The numbers would increase in Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Dr. Hans Kluge: He is WHO Regional Director for Europe. (Source: Ritzau Scanpix / imago images)
Kluge was particularly concerned about the possibility of a “double wave”. In this case there could be a second Covid-19 wave and a seasonal wave of flu or measles spread out at the same time. Many children were not vaccinated against measles, he warned. The countries would now have to use the time to strengthen their healthcare system and, for example, to expand capacity in hospitals.
At a press conference on May 7, the Robert Koch Institute did not rule out a second wave in Germany before autumn. Alexander Kekulé, virologist and infection epidemiologist at the University Clinic in Halle, also predicted many smaller outbreaks in autumn in an interview with the “RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland” epidemic unite.
In his opinion, behave SARS-CoV-2 in this respect no different from other corona or influenza viruses, which are much more widespread in the cooler seasons.
Can a second wave be prevented?
The RKI considers a second or even third wave of infection in Germany with the coronavirus to be avoidable only under certain conditions. “If we all behave sensibly and avoid infections, we have a chance to avoid a second wave,” said RKI Vice President Schaade at a press briefing in May.
The virus has not yet been eradicated. And as long as this is not the case, people have to behave in such a way that no infection chains develop. Only then could it be that the further waves feared by many experts and scientists failed to materialize. Despite the newly decided easing, people should keep to the rules on distance and hygiene.
According to experts, it is difficult to estimate precisely whether and when a second wave of infection could occur. The virus is not yet well known for this. However, the pandemic could end with the development of drugs against Covid-19 or a vaccine.
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