Nikki Haley’s Homecoming in South Carolina: Campaigning to Stop Trump
Haley’s Final Bid to Keep Trump Off the 2024 Ballot
Nikki Haley’s return to South Carolina could mark the culmination or revival of a campaign focused on gathering support from right-leaning independents in order to prevent former President Donald Trump from appearing on the 2024 ballot.
Trump’s Victory in New Hampshire Primary
Following Trump’s win in the Iowa caucuses, he outclassed Haley, his former UN ambassador, in the New Hampshire primary, securing an 11% lead.
This impressive win has led to widespread speculation, including among President Joe Biden’s campaign, that Trump is the inevitable Republican nominee.
However, the Haley campaign aims to capitalize on the significant gap in support for Trump among GOP and independent voters before time runs out.
“If somebody was forcing me to vote between one of the two, I would vote for Nikki Haley every day of the week and twice on Sundays,” expressed Anthony Dobson, a retired Navy veteran from Lakewood, Colorado.
Dobson continued, “It’s not about who she is; it’s about who she isn’t—Donald Trump.”
Challenging the Divide: Haley’s Strategy for Super Tuesday
With millions of other Americans unable to cast their votes before March 5, the day Super Tuesday’s primaries take place, Haley’s campaign maintains confidence in securing significant wins.
Todd Belt, a professor and political management program director at George Washington University, pointed out the imperative task of not suffering an embarrassing defeat in her home state but acknowledged the considerable portion of conservative-minded voters looking to move beyond Trump.
“There are more states out there that are amenable to Haley’s message than the ones she’s been in,” Belt remarked. “She does have a chance on Super Tuesday—the big question is, can she get there?”
Super Tuesday as Game-Changer: Independent and GOP Support for Haley
In the pursuit of the GOP presidential nomination, a candidate needs a total of 1,215 delegates. Presently, Haley has obtained 17 delegates, compared to Trump’s 32.
Haley’s popularity among independents in the New Hampshire primary forms a strong foundation heading into Super Tuesday, a day with 15 states and one territory holding a total of 1,151 delegates up for grabs.
In particular, 11 of these states, like New Hampshire, allow participation in the primaries beyond strictly GOP voters.
While Trump secured 49% of the Republican votes in New Hampshire, Haley triumphed among independents, enjoying a 22% lead.
Challenges Ahead: Trump’s Hold on Winner-Take-All Mechanism
Despite polls suggesting Haley’s stronger performance against President Joe Biden, many Republican primary voters are not primarily concerned with electability, according to political scientist Josh Putnam.
Putnam, an expert in party delegate selection and presidential campaigns, does not foresee a scenario in which Haley wins more contests or delegates than Trump, given the challenge of the winner-take-all environment in many states.
In certain states, such as California, Colorado, and Massachusetts, Trump, with more than half of the statewide vote, could claim all the delegates.
Thus, Haley’s potential delegate gains appear limited to states, including some in the Deep South, where Trump remains demographically favorable.
Building the Anti-Trump Narrative
As Haley heads into South Carolina with a 25-point deficit and a commitment to stay until Super Tuesday, some GOP strategists advise focusing less on delegate counts and more on shaping a narrative that exposes Trump’s weaknesses and renders him unelectable.
Republican strategist William F. B. O’Reilly suggests, “Trump will almost certainly win the majority of the delegates pre-convention, but should he stumble—or get criminally convicted—Haley should be on hand to pick up the banner.”
During a recent incident, where Trump stormed out of a Manhattan courtroom, Haley swiftly questioned his mental fitness and grasp on reality after he mistakenly identified writer E. Jean Carroll, who accused him of sexual assault, as “running for office.”
Haley’s Uphill Battle to Dethrone Trump
To secure the nomination, Haley must persuade a portion of the GOP electorate that Trump’s flaws will significantly harm the party’s chances in the upcoming election. However, this task poses difficulties due to the unwavering loyalty many right-leaning voters have to the former president.
Political commentator Rick Wilson warns that focusing solely on delegate counts and polls indicating Haley’s stronger performance against Biden won’t guarantee her the nomination, especially since many individuals may enter the race if Trump faces legal or political setbacks.
Wilson comments, “Haley must convince conservative and right-of-center independents that sticking with Trump is a fatal choice this November,” a challenging task given the fealty many voters have for the former president.
