Britain is no longer in the EU and Prime Minister Boris Johnson sees his country as a “super champion of free trade”. But The supposed strength of the British is facade – in truth, they are under extreme pressure.
It is rarely a good sign when a head of state or government reminds of the size and fame of his country in the past: the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan likes to talk about the glorious Ottoman Empire, his Russian counterpart Wladimir Putin recalls the great strength of the Soviet Union. The return to past strength serves to distract from the problems of the present. Summoning past glory is the anesthetic for an increasingly discontented population.
Also Boris Johnson often talks about the “Commonwealth” these days, the British Prime Minister now sees the time to build on past British greatness. The United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum is accomplished Great Britain has not been a member of the European Union since February 1, 2020. After the Brexiteers danced across the streets in Great Britain and popped champagne corks, the British and EU now back to the negotiating table to clarify future relationships.
But the negotiations are not going to be easy, and the time until the end of the transition phase on January 1, 2021 is short. To strengthen his position at the negotiating table, Johnson flexes his muscles, emphasizing the past and future largest in his country. But the demonstrative strength of the British is partly just a facade. The Brexit party is over for now.
A dazzling future?
“We are returning after decades of hibernation as a pioneer of global free trade.” With these words, the Prime Minister will speak to the press in London this Monday afternoon. By hibernation years, Johnson means the years of his country in the European Economic Community (EEC) and in the EU. The location of the press conference has been chosen carefully, Johnson speaks in the magnificent Baroque Painted Hall at the Royal Naval College in London’s Greenwich district.
That is why the premier pauses at the beginning of his speech, describing the impressive ceiling painting of the building. The news is clear: the EU’s bonds for Great Britain are now gone, the future of the British is dazzling.
Boris Johnson looks at the ceiling of the magnificent Baroque Painted Hall at the Royal Naval College. (Source: Reuters)
Little has changed for the British since Brexit because all EU rules in the United Kingdom continue to apply within a transition period. It is only over on December 31. Until then, the most important questions must be contractually regulated, otherwise there will be a hard break.
Boris Johnson also knows that there is still a lot to do. That is why the prime minister does not save with pathos and superlatives. “We want to be a super free trade champion and we will find our way back to old size,” he explains. “Britain is ready for the multidimensional chess game of free trade.”
Big challenges
Johnson mentions free trade again and again. It is the role that Brexit supporters in the UK were considering for the country. The island should become a leader in world trade, regardless of EU regulations. “I don’t want to exaggerate our influence, but I don’t want to understate it either,” the Prime Minister said confidently in London.
Johnson’s eagerness to fight hides the fact that Britain faces major challenges once the British have left the EU internal market. Until then, the country has to conclude trade agreements with many international partners, not just with the EU. Time is short for that.
In these negotiations, the British government represents a market with 66 million inhabitants, the EU has over 450 million inhabitants without the British. And the island’s gross domestic product (GDP) was 2,390 billion euros in 2018 – compared to that United States (EUR 20,500 billion) and that of the EU (just under EUR 13,500 billion) much higher.
It is clear that Britain is more dependent on an agreement than vice versa, the British government sits at the negotiating table with a worse hand than its partners, but that is what the island is used to after three and a half years of Brexit drama. Nevertheless, Johnson continues to see his country as a partner on an equal footing, a strategy that will hardly work anymore: because the free trade agreements are only about business. And the EU wants to continue to set an example in order to deter possible further countries willing to leave in the future.
Johnson’s criticism of Trump
The British prime minister presents himself as a pioneer of free trade on Monday. “Whenever goods cross the border freely, no soldiers will cross those borders and there will be no war,” said Johnson. He also hands out a tip against his friend US President Donald Trump and speaks out against protectionism. “In world politics, tariffs are used as toys and problems such as the corona virus are used to panic and further share markets,” he says.
Trump represents this form of protectionist world politics, the British prime minister now wants to act as a mediator between the EU and the USA, can now criticize both sides after the Brexit. While he calls for an end to US punitive tariffs on whiskey, he also calls on the “anti-Americans” in Great Britain to “finally grow up.” The British government sees the EU and the USA as important partners to conclude new trade deals.
Differences with the EU
But especially the gap in the negotiations between the EU and the British seems to be widening. At his press conference, Johnson even threatens a hard break after the Brexit transition phase. Although he wants to conclude a comprehensive free trade agreement, the UK will in no way be contractually bound to comply with EU standards on environmental protection, workers’ rights and state aid in the upcoming talks with Brussels.
“We don’t want to be like Norway who are subject to EU law and market rules,” Johnson said. The EU free trade agreement with Canada is the model.
There is no more reason for Britain to accept EU rules because of a free trade agreement than the other way around, said Johnson. “We will maintain the highest standards in these areas, better in many ways than those of the EU – without the need for a treaty, and it is vital to emphasize that now.”
“Won’t send kids to chimneys”
And this is exactly where the problem lies: The EU requires Great Britain to comply with EU standards if British goods are to enter the EU market. In Brussels, there are fears that the British will tax dump after leaving, curtail workers’ rights and disregard environmental standards. Brussels speaks of a “competitor on the doorstep”.
Johnson rejects these allegations as rumors and sees his country in social and environmental issues above EU standards. “It is not up to Brussels that we no longer send children to chimneys,” Johnson comments sufficently on the fears of the EU.
Over the next few months, it will be crucial for the negotiations whether these standards can be turned into contractual agreements and that London does not see them as an encroachment on British sovereignty.
Johnson downplayed the need for an agreement: “We also have no need to commit to the EU,” said the prime minister. He deliberately forgets that the EU is the most important trading partner for his country. Here the British strength is just a spectacle and facade. If a free trade agreement between Great Britain and the EU fails and there is a customs border, this will cause massive damage, above all to the British economy, and the former Commonwealth states that Johnson cites as possible alternatives for this free trade will not change that.
The central controversy will therefore be the contractual obligations of the British in free trade and the rights of EU fishermen in British waters.
Drama with hardened fronts
Johnson and the EU mentioned exactly the two points mentioned above independently at press conferences on Monday. “With the Brexit comes the end of free movement for the British,” emphasizes EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels, shortly after Johnson’s press conference. Access for British goods and services to the EU internal market will depend on how closely Britain adheres to EU rules and standards in the future.
Michel Barnier, Brexit negotiator of the European Union, presents the possible negotiation line of the EU at a press conference. (Source: dpa)
The dispute over the trade agreement is therefore the stage for the next big dispute in the Brexit drama.
The UK had already pledged to be fair in the autumn political declaration agreed, Barnier emphasized. The EU’s demands are therefore not a surprise to anyone. Even the best free trade agreement is not comparable to previous economic relationships in the common market. There is no “business as usual”. Goods checks are inevitable given the different rules. Great Britain chose this route.
As is so often the case in recent years, since the British voted to leave the European Union, the fronts between the EU and Great Britain have hardened and become bogged down. In the end, it has always been possible to agree at the negotiating table, but before that there have always been months of mutual threats and standstill. Britain has now left the EU, but the dispute between the island and the European Community is far from over.
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