Natural disasters will unleash unprecedented chaos in the Turkish metropolis
The next big earthquake in Istanbul is overdue and it is not a question of if it will happen, but rather when, scientists are convinced. The devastating 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck southern Turkey in February, killing tens of thousands and affecting millions, reminded residents of the Turkish metropolis that they could be next.
Once the capital of both the Byzantine and Ottoman empires, the densely populated city is home to around 16 million people. It lies precariously close to the North Anatolian Fault, which runs 20 kilometers from Istanbul and across the Sea of Marmara. Historically, the fault has produced several catastrophic earthquakes, including one with a magnitude of 7.6 that struck the nearby city of Izmit in 1999, killing over 17,000 people and displacing an estimated 500,000 others.
“The expected earthquake in Istanbul will have a magnitude between 7.2 and 7.6. If this earthquake happens, it will cause more damage than the one on February 6. Even if two houses collapse on the street, forget about this place.
You can neither help nor save anyone
600,000 houses are at risk. Consider that there are four people in every house, that means 2.5 million people will face death. The number of dead would be incredible,” warns seismologist Naji Görür. He adds that we should not only focus on 16 million Istanbul, because the earthquake will affect the entire Marmara region, as it will occur in the Marmara Sea.
The seismologist is of the opinion that Istanbul could have been prepared for an earthquake in the 24 years since the natural disaster in 1999, which killed over 17 thousand people in the Marmara region. “In its current state, however, Istanbul is not ready for such a disaster. We need to make the whole infrastructure of the city earthquake resistant. It is about roads, bridges, viaducts, sewage, potable water network. We saw what happened to 10 cities during the earthquakes on February 6”, says Görür.
At the beginning of August, the Turkish Minister of Environment and Climate, Mehmet Ozaseki, warned that 600,000 apartments in Istanbul would collapse in an earthquake with a magnitude of over 7.
“Imagine two buildings collapsing on every street, traffic stops instantly. The infrastructure is also collapsing, natural gas cannot be delivered. If this happens,
Istanbul will become a huge prison”.
Ojaseki explains.
In turn, Prof. Dr. Dogan Calafat, Director of the Regional Center for Earthquake and Tsunami Monitoring of the Kandili Observatory, adds that the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7 hitting Istanbul by 2030 is 64%, 75% to 2050 and 95% by 2090.
Japanese seismologist Yoshinori Moriwaki predicts an even more apocalyptic picture for the Turkish metropolis. The scientist believes that a future strong earthquake in the city will also trigger a devastating tsunami, also highlighting the presence of fault lines at the bottom of the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul. According to him, these lines, located between Yalova and Silivri, are about 20 kilometers from the city and are expected to break soon.
“The height of the tsunami waves will make it impossible for anyone to swim. Therefore, after a tsunami warning, it is necessary to go to the highest points. In Japan, people are fully prepared for an earthquake. And 60% of the buildings in Turkey are without permits.
The Turkish authorities must solve this problem in order to minimize possible damage from an earthquake,” explains Morivaki.
“The fault line under the Sea of Marmara has the capacity to trigger two earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7 in one year. We saw this in the Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes in 1999, as well as others in the region in the past,” said Sukru Ersoy, professor of geology at Turkey’s Yildiz Technical University.
Between 2000 and 2018, construction sites increased sevenfold in Istanbul alone, Western media noted. While growth is generally a good thing, the way the industry has grown is cause for concern. The metropolis has lost 10% of its forests to urban projects in the past 18 years. Meanwhile, 78 post-earthquake community gathering areas have already been earmarked for development. Also, since the mid-1980s, the Turkish government has amnestied buildings built without building permits, as well as those that did not comply with official building codes, including earthquake regulations. There is now concern for the countless Gejekondu communities in Istanbul. The term translates to “built overnight” and refers to homes built quickly and without proper permits, often located in one of the city’s many slums.
Due to excessive construction and privatization of green areas, 67 percent of the city’s population
no open spaces to gather after a natural disaster,
experts say. Of the 1.16 million buildings in Istanbul today, about 800,000 were built after 2000. But it would be a mistake to assume that these relatively new structures are ready to withstand a magnitude 7.8 quake. A boy sits on a terrace in one of the most earthquake-prone neighborhoods in the Turkish metropolis. PHOTOS: Reuters
Urban planner Taifun Kahraman believes that 20 percent of buildings will be unusable after an earthquake in Istanbul, which will affect at least 3 million people. According to the municipality, 10,000 Turks live in 318 buildings that are on the verge of collapse even without a natural disaster. And there are another 1,525 risky buildings that people call home, say experts.
“The prospects for Istanbul are not good. If a major earthquake doesn’t hit the city in the next 20 years, then we’ll all be very surprised. That’s how close it is. It’s only a probability, but it’s a big one,” says Professor Celal Sengor, one of Turkey’s most prominent geologists. He predicted that chaos would ensue after the initial horror of the natural disaster. “You can’t just think about the immediate impact of the shakeup, you have to think about what’s going to come next. There will be robberies, fires, epidemics. It will be terrible,” says Senghor.
With the threat looming over Istanbul, the Minister of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, Mehmet Ojaseki, announced that he is in the process of developing a comprehensive 4-phase plan as part of the goal of adopting
special earthquake law
He announced that the first stage is the ongoing work on urban transformation.
“At the second stage, we determined the spare residential areas. In these areas we can build new solid, reliable houses for up to 350,000 people. I think we will take the second step of earthquake preparation by moving the most risky structures to new locations,” he said. The third phase is the campaign through which the state helps citizens to demolish and rebuild their homes by covering half of the costs.
The minister noted that so far over 1 million applications have been registered as part of the project.
“At the fourth stage, we are considering the introduction of a special law for Istanbul. We want to take measures to eliminate all the obstacles we have encountered in the work of urban transformation in Istanbul, which has been going on for 11 years now,” Ojaseki emphasized. PHOTOS: Reuters
Over the centuries, Istanbul has witnessed at least seven major earthquakes: in 1509, 1719, 1754, 1766, 1894 and 1912.
2023-08-22 05:59:00
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