The incidence in the country is falling steadily, many corona measures are being relaxed. But there were also low case numbers last summer. How likely is it that the numbers will rise again?
The incidence in Rhineland-Palatinate is on the decline – on Tuesday (June 22nd, 2021) the State Investigation Office reported 8.0 again, a lower number than the previous day. But the number of infections also fell last summer – more corona waves followed.
“Yes, we will probably have a fourth wave,” says virologist Bodo Plachter from Mainz University Medical Center. “You will see an increase again.” When exactly and how strong it will be, however, is speculative. “We learned in the pandemic that you can’t plan that far,” he says in an interview with the SWR. The number is influenced, for example, by virus mutations.
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Virologist Bodo Plachter from Mainz University Medical Center
Press office
Press office Unimedizin Mainz / Photo: Peter Pulkowski
For the Ministry of Health, increasing numbers are again a conceivable scenario. A ministry spokesman said that when asked by SWR, they were well prepared for a possible fourth wave. The health system has proven to be robust, capacities for tests have proven themselves and the processes are well established. The known protective measures such as distance and mask as well as vaccination are also effective against the spreading delta variant, according to initial research data.
Vaccines make all the difference
The proportion of the delta variant in Rhineland-Palatinate is still low. Virologist Plachter assumes that the more infectious Delta variant will also prevail here. Nonetheless, he is optimistic about the coming months: “The question is how far rising incidences will burden the health system.” They now have vaccines. The risk of serious and fatal courses will thus be significantly lower. “The impact on society will not be as serious as it was last winter,” says the virologist.
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According to the Ministry of Health, 1.9 million people in Rhineland-Palatinate have already received their first vaccination and more than 1.2 million also their second vaccination (as of June 22, 2021). During the summer, all adults who are ready for a vaccination should receive a specific offer. However, not all are vaccinated yet. Despite the easing and the low numbers, one should therefore continue to be careful, says Bodo Plachter. In the meantime you are tired of Corona, you might just want to celebrate on vacation and forget the virus. “But Corona is not gone,” warns Plachter.
Corona will probably stay
With the exception of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, the second dose is absolutely essential for vaccination, otherwise the protection is limited. Future infections will mainly affect vaccinated and unvaccinated people. This also includes children – who, however, if they have no previous illnesses, show a rather mild course of an infection, says Plachter.
However, the virus will not completely disappear even with vaccinations: “It is very unlikely that we will forget Corona again,” says Plachter. Similar to the flu, there will always be new variants and waves. The question is therefore rather how far the number of infections will still have an impact on daily life.
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