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One of the images of the year was that of the young Spanish tennis player Carlos Alcaraz taking to the streets of Melbourne after two weeks of hotel quarantine, taking off his mask and immersing himself enthusiastically in the hustle and bustle of the Australian night. If freedom is anything, it must look a lot like that.
In Australia, masks have not been mandatory for a long time because the virus barely circulates in the country. Its ‘Covid Zero’ policy has managed to Only three deaths related to the coronavirus have been recorded since October 29, 2020. In fact, in Australia, there is hardly any need for vaccines. Its border control and immediate withdrawal at the slightest threat of reappearance has been enough.
The rest of the world has had different approaches, how could it be otherwise. Since those who were already used to entrance masks – practically all of Southeast Asia- even those who considered it something grotesque – a good part of the United States and some areas of Europe and Latin America.
Throughout the West, the mask has been an element of defense, but not everywhere it has been mandatory: in the United Kingdom, for example, it was no more than a recommendation for interior spaces. Abroad, it was completely optional, and right now it is reserved practically exclusively for public transport and in sanitary facilities.
The same can be said for United States, where each state has made a tunic out of its cape and it is curious to what extent something so aseptic has become a matter of political struggle. The Democratic states were the first to enact the obligation to wear masks in public places while the Republicans have been very reluctant to take similar measures.
In fact, Former President Donald Trump waited until July 12 to appear in public for the first time wearing a mask and was always dismissive of its usefulness.
Blue: mandatory mask; green – indoors only; purple: only in some sectors; gray: unregulated.
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In fact, the “mandatory mask” policy, at least in public venues, has been a very central European thing, and as the mass vaccination campaign progresses by leaps and bounds, countries are preparing to return to facial normality.
For this, several conditions must be met: a high percentage of vaccinated and a low incidence, always below the high risk threshold (150 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). Spain is already practically there, but other countries such as Germany or Italy touch 200 while France directly exceeds 300.
And yet, France and Germany have been ahead of their Mediterranean neighbors when it comes to softening the position on the use of masks: in the country chaired by Angela Merkel it was decided already in January that masks only made sense indoors.
And also that, to be really effective, they had to be FFP2, the same ones that Fernando Simón described in Spain as “selfish” last summer without distinguishing between those that have a valve -a minority that does not protect as much the rest of the contagion- from those that do not have it -the vast majority-.
In France, the mask has always been mandatory indoors, but not outdoors, where it has depended on local authorities. Facing this summer, the French health minister hopes to be able to lift practically all restrictions, although it warns: “It will depend on the rate of vaccination and the transmission of the virus. As soon as possible, it will be announced, we will not take another day.”
So that, Spain and Italy are practically exceptions when forcing their citizens to wear the mask in open areas, even on deserted beaches or during country excursions. The mask protects from contagion but for this there must be a risk of contracting the virus, that is, at least there must be someone else nearby.
The golden rule at the beginning of the pandemic was “the safety distance of two meters will have to be carried when it is not possible.” It is true that the doubts about aerosol transmission, which continue there, make that rule not so valid. Infections can occur even ten meters away or when the infected has just left a space. Now, almost all the studies in this regard speak of closed rooms.
Italy and Spain lead the use of the mask outdoors in Europe.
YouGov
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Being infected by aerosols in an open space is an almost discounted hypothesis. Yes, the use of a mask could be recommended when many people gather in a place because there the contagion can be direct by contact. It is common sense that if I am coughing or have symptoms, I should wear a mask. It is also not advisable to yell at anyone’s face.
In the same way, liberalizing the use of the mask does not imply that it is mandatory not to use it. If someone continues to have doubts about it and wants to protect themselves, they will be free to do so. Another thing is that this fear should be extended to the rest of the population.
At what point could Spain at least consider withdrawing the obligation to wear a mask outdoors, as Fernando Simón himself announced at a press conference last Monday? From the outset, I already say, seeing that in France and Germany they are already more open than us on this issue, Nor would anything happen to immediately withdraw the obligation in open public spaces where there is no direct contact with anyone.
In fact, it is likely that the use of a mask even in street conversations with non-partners or on the terraces should be within the scope of recommendation. The opposite, moreover, would be uncontrollable. Can that trigger cases if done wrong? Anything that is done wrong is a risk in the middle of a pandemic, but we can not remain blocked before any new step for fear that it is a false step.
Of course, you will have to be especially attentive, but if it is explained well enough when and where it is advisable to use these masks – indoors, it would still be advisable to demand them – there should be no noticeable difference with respect to the current situation.
New cases per million inhabitants in Israel.
Our World in Data
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If the criteria have to do directly with vaccination and transmission, well, let’s look at Israel. The Hebrew country, one of the fastest to vaccinate but also suffered one of the worst waves in winter, forcing a new confinement of a large part of its population, it waited until April 20 of this year to lift the ban on open spaces.
What was your situation at that time? A reproduction rate between 0.7 and 0.8 (in Spain it is around 0.85 although there are regions with more problems), 56.98% of the immunized population (two doses) and 200 cases per day over a population of just over nine million.
As we can see, Spain is only close to one of the three requirements, but there is still time for the summer and the other indicators are close to the ideal: according to the latest data published by the Ministry of Health, 15.7% of the population has already received the complete guideline.
If we take into account that in the last week we have seen a 2% increase in the total number of immunized patients and that millions of doses of Pfizer are expected to arrive, it is likely that this growth will skyrocket in the coming weeks, being able to reach that 55-56% even before the month of August. However, the data for the last two days is slightly lower than expected, so we must be careful when making exact projections.
Regarding the cases detected, This Tuesday 3,988 new infections were reported, the lowest figure since August 12. On Wednesday, the figure rose to 6,080, but it is normal on Wednesday, leaving the cumulative incidence at 144.56 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. If we had to follow the Israeli example to the letter, we would have to wait to drop to 800 new infections a day.
Perhaps it is a very optimistic criterion. Actually, 35-40% immunized, plus 10-15% who probably still have antibodies for having previously passed the disease, and an incidence below 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants would justify some kind of movement with respect to masks.
Yes, it is important, I insist, an exhaustive work of pedagogy in terms of the internal enclosures. The masks will have to continue wearing them if we understand that we can enter a closed place with more people. What is not necessary is to wear them constantly in the middle of the Spanish summer.
It will also be necessary to see that there is no small rebound in June as a result of the end of the state of alarm, but although it is still an option that cannot be ruled out, it seems less and less likely. Soon, Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao or Seville will be like Melbourne or Berlin and, soon, the illusion of normality, of freedom, will fill our eyes with tears.
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