NWS-NOAA space weather meteorologists modeled the trajectory of coronal mass ejection, CME, toward Earth and have confirmed that it will likely arrive today on October 11.
The impact could cause geomagnetic storms of class G1 to G2. If a moderately strong G2 storm materializes, sky watchers in the United States could see auroras as far south as a line from New York to Oregon. Auroras are likely to be visible at high latitudes in Europe, with a small chance of reaching mid-latitudes.
The NOAA SWPC expects the M1.6 CME to arrive after midday tomorrow, Monday 11 October.
A moderate G2 (Kp6) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for tomorrow evening. CME effects should persist into Tuesday, 12 October and could be followed by the onset of a coronal hole stream. pic.twitter.com/Fw5CAQeRV1
— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) October 10, 2021
In optimal conditions, the aurora could become visible from latitudes such as Tasmania in Australia, Scotland, southern Sweden and the Baltic states. The northern states of the United States should also remain vigilant as dusk approaches in case we expect geomagnetic storm conditions.
Attentive: One #SolarFlare It is heading towards Earth, and it does not come alone #CME . It will arrive on October 11-12, 2021https://t.co/E4xJR2Z5w5 through @MeteoredES
– RAM Magazine of the Aficionado a la Meteorología (@RAM_meteo) October 10, 2021
G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible on October 11 due to the early arrival of a CME from October 9. G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible from October 11 to 12.
The origin
Sunspot AR2882 projected a coronal mass ejection (CME) towards Earth a few days earlier. The coronographers recorded the solar storm cloud coming almost directly towards us.
This fact is called the “CME halo” because the CMEs going directly towards the Earth appear to form a 360 degree halo around the sun.
According to Spaceweather, so far this year, dozens of CMEs have bypassed Earth. Many of them caused only minor geomagnetic distress in their wake. But this time, the sun shoots directly at the Earth.
Coronagraph imagery is starting to trickle in showing the impressive CME launched during the M1.6 solar flare.
A full halo CME was launched which will certainly arrive at Earth within the next 48 to 72 hours. Geomagnetic storm conditions will be highly likely. More info later, pic.twitter.com/wURl4YHYf4
— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) October 9, 2021
A direct hit from that cloud on October 11 could cause geomagnetic storms. Experts point out these will not be at all similar to the Carrington event . Likely storm levels will only reach G1 or G2 levels on a scale up to G5.
The first signs of this incident were detected from August 28, 1859 when the Northern Lights were seen across North America. Intense shades of light were observed from Maine to Florida. Even in Cuba, ship captains recorded the appearance of coppery lights near the zenith in their logbooks. At this time, telegraph cables, an invention that had started working in 1843 in the United States, suffered cuts and short circuits that caused many fires, both in Europe and North America. Auroras have been observed in areas of mid-latitudes, such as Rome or Madrid (latitude 40 ° 25′08 ″ N), even in areas of low latitudes such as Havana, the Hawaiian Islands, the city of Montería (latitude 8 ° 45 ′ N) in Colombia, among others. Under optimal conditions, the aurora could become visible from latitudes such as Tasmania in Australia, Scotland, southern Sweden and the Baltic States.
The northern states of the United States should also remain vigilant as dusk approaches in case we have the expected geomagnetic storm conditions. Event analysis and model output suggest that the arrival of CME will occur
around noon on October 11, with lingering effects that will persist until October 12.
– Sources : Spaceweather, NWS NOAA Spaceweather, Wikipédia, SpaceweatherLive
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