Indonesia’s Presidential Election Raises High Stakes for U.S. and China
JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) — Indonesians cast their votes on Wednesday for a new president in one of the world’s biggest elections, and the outcome will carry significant implications for the United States and China as their rivalry in the region intensifies.
The Battle for Southeast Asia
Indonesia, a Southeast Asian nation, holds significant economic and political importance, making it a key battleground for global powers. The United States and China have long been on a collision course over Taiwan, human rights, U.S. military deployments, and Beijing’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea.
While Indonesia’s outgoing President, Joko Widodo, has skillfully avoided any criticism of either Beijing or Washington, his policies have facilitated substantial Chinese trade and investment, including the funding of a $7.3 billion high-speed railway. Jakarta has also strengthened defense ties and intensified military exercises with the U.S. These policies are expected to continue if the current defense minister and the election frontrunner, Prabowo Subianto, wins.
However, as Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at Rand Corp., notes, Indonesia’s non-aligned stance will likely remain unchanged, regardless of the election outcome. Subianto has praised both the U.S. and China, highlighting America’s historical role in securing Indonesian sovereignty and the significant contributions China has made to Southeast Asia.
A Shift in Foreign Policy?
Another presidential candidate, Anies Baswedan, the former Education Minister and Jakarta Governor, has expressed a desire to shift Widodo’s “transactional” foreign policy to one centered on principles. Baswedan emphasizes the importance of human rights and environmental protection as the foundation of Indonesia’s foreign policy.
Marty Natalegawa, a respected former Indonesian foreign minister, hopes the new elected leaders will create a more stable U.S.-China relationship and contribute to maintaining peace and balance in the region.
Regional Implications of a New Leader
The U.S. and China have witnessed the impact of a new leader in the region on their interests before. Rodrigo Duterte, the President of the Philippines, became a vocal critic of U.S. security policy while fostering close ties with China and Russia. Duterte’s successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., approved the expansion of the U.S. military presence in the Philippines in response to China’s increasing aggression in Philippine-claimed offshore areas.
As Indonesia and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) pursue a non-aligned stance as part of the Non-Aligned Movement, tensions between the U.S. and China continue to be felt throughout the region. Criticisms of China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea have been watered down in ASEAN, with certain member states aligning with Beijing and opposing any reproach against China.
While Indonesia, the largest ASEAN member, maintains a delicate balance in its foreign policy, the U.S. and China must navigate their influence in the region where the interests of both powers clash.
References
Associated Press journalists Jim Gomez in Jakarta, Indonesia, and David Rising in Bangkok, Thailand contributed to this report.
