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Ethiopia maintains schedule, AU enters the picture

Ethiopia announced on Saturday that it intends to start filling the reservoir of its gigantic dam on the Nile “in the next two weeks”, while committing to try to conclude, under the aegis of the African Union, a final agreement with Egypt and Sudan, worried about the consequences of the project.

The Great Renaissance Dam (Gerd), called to become the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa with a production capacity of more than 6,000 megawatts, is a source of great regional tension.

The statement released on Saturday morning by the office of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed partially contradicts the statements, Friday evening, of the Egyptian and Sudanese leaders assuring that Ethiopia had agreed to postpone the impoundment of its dam until that an agreement be reached.

Ethiopia sees the 145-meter-high dam as essential for its development and electrification, Sudan and Egypt fear that it will restrict their access to water.

Egypt, which sees the project as an “existential” threat, last week called on the UN Security Council to intervene. A new Council meeting is scheduled to take place on Monday.

No reports mentioned

On Friday, the leaders of the three countries met during a videoconference organized and chaired by the South African head of state Cyril Ramaphosa, President in office of the African Union.

In the evening, the services of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi reported a “final legally binding agreement aimed at preventing any unilateral action, including the impoundment of the dam”.

Same tone on the side of Khartoum where, according to Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok, it was “agreed that the impoundment of the dam would be postponed until an agreement is reached”.

But in its statement on Saturday morning, Addis Ababa does not mention a postponement as such and seems to stick to its schedule, while saying it is ready to continue discussions for a final agreement.

“Ethiopia plans to start filling the Gerd within two weeks, during which construction work will continue. It was during this period that the three countries agreed to reach a final agreement on the few remaining issues, “said the Ethiopian statement.

Tripartite discussions on the commissioning and management of the dam had resumed in June, the main stumbling blocks remaining the operation of the installation in drought and the mechanisms for resolving any disputes.

Ethiopia has been reluctant to involve third parties in the process, especially after the US administration attempted mediation at the request of Egypt, which ended in February in failure, Addis Ababa accusing in particular the United States of favoring Cairo.

The government of Abiy Ahmed, 2019 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, also criticized Egypt for detailing its grievances in a letter sent to the UN Security Council in May, a move qualified as an attempt to “exert pressure diplomatic missions ”.

The African Union as arbiter

In its statement on Saturday, Addis Ababa welcomed the involvement of the African Union in the file, reaffirming that “African questions must find African solutions”. The AU stressed in a statement on Saturday that “90% of the questions relating to the tripartite negotiations (…) had already been resolved” and called on the countries concerned to “refrain from any declaration or any action which could complicate or undermine the AU process aimed at finding an acceptable solution to the outstanding issues. ”

The AU specifies that it is now in charge of the file, that a progress report must be presented “within a week” to President Ramaphosa and that the Executive Council of the continental organization will meet again on subject in two weeks. The Sudanese authorities also said on Friday that the technical committees of the three countries will try to reach a final agreement within two weeks.

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