“Close calls to avoid red areas”

How will we defend ourselves from Delta variant? With the mini red zones to stop the first fires immediately; with an alarm system when in a given territory 250 positive cases per 100 thousand inhabitants are exceeded but also with high vigilance already at 100. “And above all – urges the Undersecretary of Health, Pier Paolo Sileri – we anticipate the second doses as much as possible . When it was decided to extend the time, it made sense, because we had to vaccination as many people as possible. Today the Delta variant has changed the conditions, since it takes a complete cycle to stop it. At this point we set the next recalls after 21 days from the first dose for Pfizer, after 28 for Moderna. Let’s not waste time, let’s not wait for the maximum allowed interval of 42 days, also because beyond the latest widespread projections, I am convinced that now the Delta in Italy represents at least 1 in 5 cases of infection. And it is increasing rapidly, in May it was at 1 percent, gradually it has grown and next week I expect to see it at 20-25 percent ».

Delta variant, the scenarios

Trinità d’Agultu is a town of 2,800 inhabitants, in the province of Sassari. It is not the first red zone from the Delta variant, but basically it looks like us, since it will maintain the curfew until Thursday due to a cluster of 15 infected in the crew of the film produced by Disney “The Little Mermaid”, while in the village the cases are states 22. The model is this: localized red areas to stop the outbreaks of Delta variant, with the same method that four months ago in the province of Perugia and Chieti served to stem the Brazilian mutation. Another area under observation is in Campania, the Vesuvian area, where 82 cases of the Delta variant have already been found, with a strong concentration in Torre del Greco.

MASKS

The governor of Campania, Vincenzo De Luca, worried, intervened with an order that reaffirms the maintenance of the mask in crowded places even outdoors (in reality it will also be the same in the rest of Italy, but the president’s goal is to convince citizens of his region to remain cautious). Not surprisingly, even yesterday Campania had the record of positive cases and 15 percent of the new infected is concentrated in that region which is also among the top three in terms of number of hospitalized. Something is happening and must be stopped immediately. Does that mean we will soon have localized red areas? For now the scenario is not that. «I don’t see situations in Italy that at the moment justify red zones – observes Sileri – but it remains an important tool. There is no contradiction with the fact that all of Italy is in the white band. Precisely with rapid and localized closures, if needed, we will be able to consolidate the results achieved and avoid the spread of the Delta variant ». But when should they shoot? A datum that can be used as a reference point is the regional red zone incidence, which was set at 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants on a weekly basis. Waiting for that figure to be reached in a specific municipality or province, however, risks being dangerous and causing intervention when it is too late. This is why it is estimated to mobilize in the face of 100 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, even if the final decision rests with the presidents of the Region who, as happened in the past, can close in the face of anomalous clusters. To date, the scenario proposed by the CTS coordinator, Franco Locatelli, of the mini red zones is only a theoretical weapon. Everywhere in Italy we are well under 50 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants and this allows for tracing, that is, to trace and check the contacts of a positive. On paper is the guarantee that any Delta variant outbreaks can be limited promptly. This is what happened, for example, in the province of Piacenza, where a cluster was identified among the workers of the logistics companies.

SURVEILLANCE

The Ministry of Health has now asked to sequence (evaluate which type of variant it is) all positives. Spotted reports of the Delta are coming from various Regions. Some examples: in the Marche three cases in Fermo and Senigallia; in Piedmont 8 between Cuneo, Turin, Novara and Biella (in the latter province a Delta outbreak affected the ancient sanctuary of San Giovanni d’Andorno); in Lombardy, in the Lodi area, three other reports.