Bremen gives hope
Berlin already at the peak of the omicron wave?
By Klaus Wedekind
01/21/2022, 8:00 p.m
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Berlin now has the highest incidence in Germany. The peak of the omicron wave could soon be reached there if it takes a similar course to Bremen or London. In individual districts, the trend is already apparent. That would be good news, especially for hospitals.
With around 1,260 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants, Berlin, together with Bremen, now has the highest seven-day incidence in Germany. On Saturday, the capital will be the sole leader, because while the number of cases is still rising steeply there, they have been falling significantly again in Bremen for a few days. There are many indications that the omicron wave could soon break through in the capital as well, as a look at London shows, among other things. It may have already peaked in some districts.
Five districts over 1500
Berlin-Mitte currently has by far the highest incidence of all districts nationwide with 2200 new infections, followed by Neukölln, Spandau and Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg with values of around 1590. Pankow currently has almost 1540 cases. Only Steglitz-Zehlendorf (677) and Tempelhof-Schoeneberg (830) are below 1000. Marzahn-Hellersdorf is currently only reporting an incidence of 290, but the health department in this district had technical problems, which meant that it was unable to transmit any case numbers to the RKI for seven days.
The pandemic in Berlin is mainly being driven by the young age groups. The 10 to 14 year olds have the highest incidence with around 3,000 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants and week. The 5 to 9 year olds come to about 2850, the 15 to 19 year olds to 2200 cases. The incidences are significantly lower among vulnerable older people aged 60 and over, but the value for those over 90 is close to 500.
Hardly any impact on intensive care units
The omicron wave in Berlin has not yet had any major effects on the intensive care units, most of the patients there were still infected with the delta variant. Therefore, the corona intensive cases in Berlin continue to decrease, on December 11 there were 257, now 170.
But it doesn’t have to stay that way, as you can see from Bremen, where Omikron was able to assert itself earlier. The number of Covid 19 patients in the intensive care units there has increased slightly from 23 to 27 since December 30th.
Patients with instead of because of omicron
The development on the normal wards is probably more problematic, the occupancy of which in Berlin has increased significantly since the turn of the year and, with 606 corona patients, has already reached the peak level of last April. According to the state health department (Lageso) occupancy is currently doubling every 23 days. If the development does not stop or slow down, values like a year ago threaten in February.
Currently, many patients do not come to the hospital because of Covid-19, but are only tested positive there – according to Figures from the UK Bureau of Statistics this could be the case for up to 50 percent. Berlin’s Governing Mayor Franziska Giffey told ntv on Friday during a visit to the clinic that almost all omicron patients were there because of other clinical pictures. But these patients are also an enormous burden because they have to be accommodated and treated in isolation at great expense. In addition, there is a growing shortage of staff in the clinics.
Wave could soon break like in Bremen
However, the chances are quite good that hospitalizations in Berlin will not reach new highs. The omicron wave could break in the capital as early as next week. The development in Bremen gives reason for hope, because the number of cases in the Hanseatic city has been declining for a week. The incidence there fell from around 1470 to 1260 and the curve continues to point steeply downwards.
There are also indications that individual Berlin districts have already reached or exceeded the peak of the omicron wave. In Mitte, the incidence has not increased for the first time since January 3, but has fallen from 2,337 to 2,200. Neukölln has already recorded a decline from around 1750 to almost 1590 for two days, and in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg the number of cases has even fallen from almost 1840 to 1590 since January 17th.
Very high test positive rate
The informative value is still very limited, the falling values could also be due to a delay in reporting. With a test positive rate of 26.5 percent reported by Lageso for the past week, underreporting is possible. The value in Berlin has never been higher and the number of tests carried out exceeded laboratory capacities. And because the incidences are still rising unchecked in other districts, one can only be very cautiously optimistic for Berlin.
However, the fact that it has already been observed in other metropolises that the “omicron wall” builds up steeply for around three weeks after a start of about one week and then collapses almost as quickly speaks for an early breaking of the wave. That was among other things in New York So, the best example is London, because the data situation is particularly good there.
Development like in London?
Since around Christmas, the seven-day incidence in the British capital has fallen from around 2,000 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants to around 880. It is also a good sign that the number of corona intensive care patients in London rose only slightly in the omicron wave and has also been falling since January 5th. The same applies to the normal stations, which were hit much harder by the spread of the new variant. The steep rise reversed there on January 7 and the curve has been falling steeply ever since.
In London there are practically no corona rules, while in Berlin there is the 2G plus rule for containment. Nevertheless, the situation in Great Britain cannot be used to draw conclusions about that in the German capital. Apparently, restrictive measures in conurbations, where many younger and socially active people live together in a small space, slow down Omicron less than possibly in more rural regions.
The British capital also has no better vaccination rates than Berlin. Only 63 percent of those over 12 there received two doses, only 43 percent are boosted. Among those over 60, 80 to 89 percent are basic immunized, 68 to 82 percent have received a booster. In Berlin, around 58 percent of 12 to 17 year olds, 82 percent of 18 to 59 year olds and 91 percent of those over 60 have basic immunization. 77 percent of Berliners over the age of 60 are boosted.
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