9 million families give up

Over a year after his birth and halfway through his potential life, at least on paper, the Superbonus 110% he spent less than 20% of his $ 18 billion dowry and lost 80% of his original followers on the street. Too many stakes and too many unknowns. A maze of fulfilments and requirements for tax concessions linked to energy super-efficiency that break against the dense fog that also envelops the times and methods for the assignment of credit, an indispensable driving force for the same Super bonus, in the hands of the banks which, however, also have to deal with the fragility of smaller companies. It is therefore a slow-motion measure, held back by bureaucracy and uncertainty, the one photographed by Nomisma’s latest analysis.

Thus, just as the construction world manages to snatch a promise from Minister Enrico Giovannini for the much-desired extension of the measure to 2023 – but in the budget law – there is a first “effect of resignation and discouragement” on the part of families, says Nomisma. “The current picture shows an obstacle course” in which interventions are growing “but not with the expected speed”, explains the analysis of 110% Monitor, the quarterly observatory launched by Nomisma and edited by Marco Marcatici, head of the Development section and sustainability of the institution.

In particular, the families affected by the measure are affected by “the uncertainty about regulatory decisions, the inadequacy of information on the part of operators, the difficulties encountered by companies due to price increases and the fact that even minimal abuses can prevent the start of operations “.

Superbonus, the drastic drop

On the basis of the study by the Bolognese research institute, it clearly emerges that «the number of families potentially interested in benefiting from the Super bonus suffered a drastic decline. They were 10.5 million in May 2020, they fell to 9 million in June 2021. But the most surprising figure, according to Marcatali, is that only 2.3 million families are ultimately really taking concrete actions. Too little. Just as the number of open construction sites is small, just over 14,450 – for a work amount of 1.66 billion relating to 1,380 condominiums, in fact 10% of the total throughout the national territory. The same observatory shows that 9.4 million families are not entirely interested in the measure, while another 4 million are interested, but still in stand-by, waiting for greater certainty. In addition, 40% of the interventions are concentrated on single homes. The result? «On the one hand – explains the expert – the Super bonus risks exacerbating some territorial inequities, given the current concentration of interventions in Lombardy, Veneto, Lazio and Emilia-Romagna, regions more equipped to manage the interventions administratively and in terms of implementation, with consequent penalization of the less equipped territories, such as Molise, Basilicata, Umbria and Abruzzo ».

On the other hand, the measure “would risk giving real estate value only to those who already have it”.
Yet, the ambition was to make a clear change towards the efficiency of buildings, but also a shock to the construction sector, and therefore to the economy of the whole country. Considering the average multiplier applied to the sector, those 18 billion allocated by the government could have an impact on GDP of at least 45-50 billion. Therefore, corrective measures are needed to fuel the confidence of families and businesses.

In particular, Nomisma makes some proposals: starting with a contract release operation pending the confirmation of extension to 2023, accompanied by certainty on the sale of credit, up to the mitigation of market distortions, with a price check on raw materials, and the introduction of differentiated rates according to the condominiums, which allow even the most “difficult” contexts to use them.