How do you assess the result of the first round of presidential elections?
Professor Kazimierz Kik: It reflects the results of previous surveys. Although the enormous turnout served rather Rafał Trzaskowski.
Precisely, the turnout was record-breaking, over 62 percent. Why was it beneficial for the president of Warsaw?
Because we see greater mobilization in larger urban centers, traditionally voting for candidates of the liberal option, so high turnout was an asset for Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia. In this context, the election result is a success for President Andrzej Duda.
Well, but now it will be the second turn. The voters of the third in the race of Szymon Hołownia in the second round will probably vote for Rafał Trzaskowski. So the incumbent president has nothing to fear?
Not necessarily. The fight will of course be leveled to the end. But there are several advantages on the side of Andrzej Duda.
What?
First of all – the mentioned turnout. In the first round it was greater in cities. This favored Trzaskowski. In the second, this mobilization may be smaller on the liberal side. For a simple reason – the difference between Duda and Trzaskowski is large. So PO voters may be discouraged and some of them will stay at home. In turn, the fact that it is the second round that Andrzej Duda must fight for re-election may additionally mobilize voters from smaller towns. Secondly, Szymon Hołownia cannot simply call for a vote for Trzaskowski if he wants to dream of building his independent political movement. Thirdly, the voters of the fourth Krzysztof Bosak race will support Andrzej Duda. If we combine these factors – i.e. the support of Bosak’s voters, the lack of indication by Hołownia, a greater turnout in small towns and a smaller one in cities – it will be clear that Andrzej Duda is the favorite.
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Robert Biedroń were defeated. Why did the PSL candidate and the left candidate not convince the voters?
As for the left, we know that Robert Biedroń has a very progressive program in the moral sphere. And simply Rafał Trzaskowski turned out to be more credible for left-wing voters in this respect. In turn, in the villages, PSL’s support has long fallen in favor of PiS. The chance of Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz was to look for conservative voters in the cities. Building such a central Christian Democrats. But this electorate was effectively used by Szymon Hołownia.
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