The expectations of a vaccine against Covid-19 that would allow to recover normality were very high when the pandemic began to spread a year ago. Since the first studies began to be known last spring, the shares of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies involved in the process have skyrocketed, despite the fact that the big pharmas do not depend only on this vaccine as it happens to firms such as BioNtech. However, delays in approval or non-compliance with supply have produced a flood of sales of its titles since the end of 2020.
The hardest hit have been Sanofi and GSK, which have lost 10% and 25%, respectively, since January last year. The alliance between the French firm and the British pharmaceutical company lost the interest of investors when it revealed that its vaccine offered a low immune response among the elderly. After this setback, Sanofi announced that it would return to phase two of the trials, the results of which will not be known until May, so it may not reach the market until the end of the year.
Although the punishment on the stock market has not been so forceful, the breach of the doses promised in the EU by the American Pfizer and the British AstraZeneca have led them to falls of 2.6% and 5.5%, each, since the beginning 2020.
The titles of the first one touched 42 dollars days before being approved but shortly after it began its fall due to supply problems. Until December 9, it registered a rise in the year of 19%. Since then, in less than three months, it has fallen by 18% despite producing the vaccine with the highest efficacy demonstrated to date.
The AstraZeneca case has been even more controversial because of the political implications of Brexit and the doses supplied to the UK versus the EU. Furthermore, the trials carried out in people over 65 years of age have not been large enough to establish the level of efficacy in the population considered at risk. This has meant that, although doses have arrived, they are not being administered in their entirety. According to UBS, countries could be waiting for more data or vaccines that have been proven effective against the new strains to avoid “vaccinating twice.”
But it has not all been bad news. Novavax, whose vaccine is scheduled to be approved in May, has soared 4,300% since early 2020 due to its small size – it has a capitalization of $ 12.7 billion – and the low diversification of its business, which makes vaccines be your gateway to a sector of great competitors. The same thing happens to BioNTech –with a market value of 23,000 million dollars– which has added 185% since January 2020 despite the falls of its partner Pfizer –with a capitalization of 192,000 million.
Also on the earnings side, Moderna has appreciated 610% in the last 15 months, and CureVac has added 415% since August, when it debuted on the stock market, although its vaccine is still in phase three of clinical trials and is unknown what will be its effectiveness.
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