The recent increase in daily cases of COVID-19 in the United States increasingly brings the possibility that the country will have to adopt containment measures to contain the spread of the disease.
With more than 2.6 million cases in total and more than 40,000 new daily infections, the pandemic put the country back in check, a blow that forced states such as Texas, Florida and Arizona to adopt, again, measures of social restriction, despite that they were already in the reopening stage.
In fact, it is estimated that around 40% of the country’s citizens either return to isolation or their states will delay opening, a situation that could be worse, since as Anthony Fauci, the government’s leading expert against COVID, alerted yesterday- 19, if the necessary measures are not taken, the United States could register 100,000 cases every day.
Also, added to the new measures of confinement, New York yesterday imposed quarantine on Americans arriving from 16 states in the country, another fact that shows the seriousness of the situation. And the economy may be one of the most affected.
The IMF calculates that the GDP will contract 8% this year, but it is a scenario in which it does not contemplate a outbreak of the coronavirus. For its part, the OECD did calculate the effect of a second wave, which would bring the country’s recession to 8.5%. But the blow may be greater.
As Edward Stuart, professor emeritus of economics at Northeastern Illinois University, points out, “Texas, Arizona, and Florida, and now California, are experiencing increases in infections and hospitalizations; the first three took very flexible steps and reopened their businesses too quickly, without implement a gradualness, and these are among the most populous in the country, so it has a great impact on the United States as a whole. My calculation points to an additional 5% reduction in GDP, while unemployment would be over 15 % “.
Similarly, beyond the fall in GDP, the impact would be seen in a delay in recovery. Óscar Jordá, economist at the University of California, points out that “As long as the virus continues to be contained, I don’t see the recovery being able to get going. The more time passes, the more pressure builds up in the debt markets. The number of families that cannot pay rent or just like SMEs. At some point this pressure cooker may explode. “
But the United States is not the only country with a rise in cases. China imposed a total quarantine in the Hebei region, Germany again confined an area of the country, and several European nations face small outbreaks.
In the region, Chile, Peru, Brazil and Mexico continue to increase their cases to a great extent. In fact, yesterday PAHO warned of the possibility that the deaths in Latin America could reach 400,000.
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