The situation is becoming critical in our country because of the new retirees

The new pensioners in our country open a hole of 30% in the Bulgarian economy. This is clear from the report for 2019-2020 on the implementation of the National Strategy for Active Life of the Elderly in Bulgaria, writes “Monitor“.

According to the data in our country, only 67 young people replace 100 people who retire. By comparison, in 2001, 100 people of working age were replaced by 124 young people. The highest value of the coefficient is in the districts of Sliven – 90, Sofia (capital) – 79 persons, and Varna – 78. This indicator is the lowest in the districts of Smolyan – 41, Kardzhali – 48, and Pernik, where 100 persons leaving of working age are replaced by only 50 persons entering working age.

The population of Bulgaria continues to decrease and age, with low birth rates and high mortality rates in our country, the report concludes. The imbalance in the territorial distribution of the population is deepening.

At the end of 2020 people aged 65 and over are 1,504,048, or nearly 22 percent of the total population. Compared to 2019, the share of the population in this age group increased by 0.2 percentage points. The aging of the population leads to an increase in its average age, which increased from 40.4 years in 2001 to 44 years at the end of 2020. The average age of the population in Bulgaria is among the highest not only in the European Union but also in the world, the document reads. The aging process is more pronounced among women than among men.

The relative share of women over the age of 65 is 25.3%, and of men – 17.9%. This difference is due to the higher mortality rate among men and, as a consequence, to the lower life expectancy among them. The highest share of people over 65 is in the districts of Vidin and Gabrovo, where every third person is in this category. In a total of twenty districts, this share is above the national average. The lowest share of the elderly population is in the districts of Sofia (capital) – 17.7%, and Varna – 19.4%.

Another worrying trend noted in the report is that the working population continues to decline. The working age population at the end of 2020 is just over 4.1 million people, or 59.8% of the country’s population. In 2020, the number of able-bodied population decreased by 17 thousand people, or by 0.4%, compared to 2019. By the end of 2020, 1.7 million people, or 24.8%, are over working age.
As positive trends in 2020 can be noted

reducing child mortality,

maintaining the total fertility rate at a level close to the average for the member states of the European Union, reducing the number of divorces, increasing the mechanical growth of the population, improving the living standard and quality of life of the population, the document states.
Meanwhile, Eurostat statistics show that we are in the top 5 in the EU in terms of labor shortages. The old-age dependency ratio in the EU has increased significantly over the last 20 years. In 2001, it was 25.9%, which means that less than four people of working age (20-64) support one person aged 65 or over.
As of January 1, 2020, the ratio has increased to 34.8%, which means that less than three adults of working age replace one pensioner, according to the latest Eurostat data. As of 1 January 2020, some of the highest ratios are concentrated in East Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Portugal and Finland. Most of these regions were predominantly rural, mountainous, or relatively remote, where likely younger people have left the region, to continue their education or look for work.

Among the EU regions, Evritania, a mountainous region in central Greece, registered the highest dependency rate in old age (78.3%). This region is followed by the north-western region of Belgium (64.6%) and the German region of Sul (61.3%).

In contrast, the lowest ratios in the EU were recorded in the outermost French region of Mayotte (6.1%) and Gayane (11.7%) and the Spanish region of Fuerteventura (16.5%).

Over the next three decades, the dependency ratio in old age is expected to increase in all 1,169 regions of the EU, with the exception of Harz, the westernmost region of Saxe-Anhalt, in Germany.

At EU level, the ratio is expected to reach 56.7% by 1 January 2050, when each pensioner will be replaced by less than two adults of working age. Forecasts suggest that the old-age dependency ratio will have risen to at least 50% in most (974) regions of the EU.

The number of those requesting recalculation of pensions is decreasing

The number of applications submitted by working pensioners for recalculation of their pensions with the additionally acquired insurance length of service or insurance length of service and income after retirement is significantly reduced.

For comparison, in 2020 the number of applications decreased by almost 3 times – 75,075 applications were submitted, of which 43,200 for recalculation with insurance experience only and nearly 32,000 for recalculation with insurance experience and income. Of the total number of applications submitted last year for recalculation of pensions is 28,030, which have a single effect (for recalculation only in the current year), this is a decrease of more than 4 times compared to the previous year. The number of new applications for annual recalculation of pensions has also decreased almost 2 times – they are 47,045.

The total number of pensions recalculated in 2020 on the basis of data on the additional length of service acquired by working pensioners exceeds 300,000, and more than 260,000 of them were officially recalculated as of April 1, 2020, without individuals applying for purpose, according to NSSI data.

From 2021, the recalculation of employment pensions with the length of service acquired after retirement is carried out only ex officio as a permanent mechanism. This official recalculation will be performed from April 1 of each year with the data on the length of service acquired by the persons after retirement until the end of the previous calendar year.

After the change from the beginning of 2021, citizens can still submit applications for recalculation of their pensions, but in these cases the data on their insurance income after retirement are also taken into account, if this is more favorable for them. More than 3,000 such applications were submitted in January, in which case the pension is recalculated from the first day of the month following the month in which the application was submitted.

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