Mathematical models suggest that the current wave of the covid-19 epidemic has not yet peaked. The Center for Modeling of Biological and Social Processes (BISOP) writes this in its analysis, where several experts from the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic also work.
In order to prevent further massive proliferation and high increases in new cases, it is necessary to keep people-to-people contacts to a minimum. “In practice, this means up to a 70 percent reduction in contacts, a reduction in presence at the workplace by up to 60 percent, the almost unconditional wearing of veils and adherence to other personal protective measures,” says BISOP Executive Director René Levínský.
The measures should be at least as strict as they were in March. “If the lockdown defined in this way occurred in time (ie as soon as possible), the daily increments could fall to around one thousand in about December – in this case and with good tracing, the restrictions could gradually begin to loosen,” explains the Academy of Sciences.
Otherwise, the Christmas holidays are heavily burdened by the epidemic. According to experts, the current measures are not sufficient, although it may seem that nothing else can be closed and banned.
It turned out, for example, that the obligation to wear veils is close to the level of measures in the spring, but people’s willingness to comply with it is significantly lower. If the government does not declare a strict lockdown, according to scientists, there is no chance for improvement in the coming weeks.
“In the best case, we can hope for a slight decline with long-lasting increases of several thousand and congested healthcare,” warns Levínský. In particular, the threat of the collapse of the health care system hovers over us.
In addition, immediate lockdown is the cheapest solution. “The dilemma between the health and economic perspectives is false. We are faced with another question – whether to pay the lower hundreds of billions for the lockdown now, or to let the epidemic run on and pay the hundreds of billions later,” experts say.