“Russian attempts to take Bakhmut jeopardize Putin’s May 9 celebrations”

Russia celebrates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II every year on May 9, and authoritarian leader Vladimir Putin has used the holiday to extend his power. But this year’s celebrations will be somewhat muted, as Putin canceled parades in Kursk and Belgorod regions, which border Ukraine, and in Russian-occupied Crimea. Since Moscow has been waging a full-scale war against Ukraine for the second year and there are no signs of an impending victory, V. Putin is trying to win the battle over Bakhmut so that he can present it as a great success on May 9.

But with US estimates that 20,000 Russian troops have been killed and another 80,000 wounded in Ukraine since December, Kyiv is determined to deny Putin any chance of portraying himself as the victor.

“The occupiers can already claim the Guinness record for the frequency of deadline changes. After May 1 failed, it was moved to May 9,” said Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for the Eastern Command of the Ukrainian army, referring to Russian attempts to take Bakhmut.

Although Russia controls most of Bakhmut, S. Cherevaty said Ukraine still controls the western part of the city and that supply routes are open. Although the Russians are moving more troops to their positions, Kyivan forces say they are holding the line and have even been able to retake some territory.

“Despite the significant losses of the enemy, new “Wagner” attack groups, fighters and paratroopers of other private companies are constantly rushing into the battle. However, the enemy does not manage to take control of the city,” Oleksandrs Sirsky, commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, said in a statement.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday that “since December, we estimate that Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties, including more than 20,000 deaths.” J. Kirby said that nearly half of those killed were from the Kremlin-linked Wagner mercenary group, “most of whom were Russian convicts thrown into the fighting in Bakhmut.”

According to the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, some Russian positions in Bakhmut are vulnerable to counterattacks, and Ukraine could have opportunities. Last week, the financier and leader of the “Wagner Group” Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw his forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command did not provide the mercenaries with more ammunition.

Wagner’s fighters will have to “retreat in an organized manner or stay and die” if the situation does not improve immediately, J. Prigozhin said.

Even if the Russians take Bakhmut, the battle will continue as Ukraine establishes new defensive positions outside the city center.

“Immediately behind Bakhmut, new defense borders await us,” the Ukrainian Army’s 46th Air Mobile Brigade, which is fighting in Bakhmut, announced on its Telegram channel. “Warfare will move from urban settings to the countryside.”