The variant Delta plus, of which this week the first case was detected on Navarra (although it has not caused any outbreak), does not appear to reduce the effectiveness of vaccination, as extracted from the epidemiological report prepared by the experts of the Institute of Public and Labor Health of Navarra (ISPLN). However, the same study also predicts that the entry of this variant “may lead to an increase in cases” by having “a mutation that favors transmission.”
The main barrier to containing this possible increase in infections is complete vaccination, which according to the study “reduces the risk of infection by a third.” Furthermore, “the risk of needing hospital admission among those infected is between 5 and 6 times lower if they are fully vaccinated than if they are not vaccinated.” Thus, altogether, “The risk of hospital admission is reduced twelve times with full vaccination.”
Regarding the average effectiveness of the complete covid-19 vaccination, in Navarra it is 69% to prevent symptomatic cases and 92% to prevent hospital admissions. The effectiveness of vaccines in preventing all infections, including asymptomatic ones, is somewhat lower, 66% with a complete schedule. Since the beginning of vaccination in Navarra it is estimated that more than 13,000 infections have been prevented by the direct effect of the vaccine, 3,100 admissions hospitable, 350 admissions to ICU and 900 deaths by covid-19. To this impact must be added the indirect effect of reducing the circulation of coronavirus due to the immunity of the population.
Regarding the epidemiological evolution, in the last week the cases of covid-19 have increased by 40% compared to the previous week. However, ISPLN experts agree that the intensity of circulation “stays low”. The incidence has increased in the age groups under 75 years (exceeding 30 per 100,000), while in the 5 to 14 age group, 67 cases per 100,000 are reached. The cases of transmission at home explain 40% of the infections, the social environment explains 24%, and the cases that do not know the origin of the infection are 29%. The workplace has been associated with 2.7% of cases, and the school environment with 3.8%. All the cases analyzed corresponded to the Delta variant, except for the first case of the Delta Plus.
In conclusion, the epidemiological report explains that covid-19 will continue to circulate for the next few months along with other respiratory viruses, although its impact in severe cases will probably be less than that of the previous waves thanks to the high vaccination coverage. In correctly vaccinated people, the risk of presenting a serious illness due to covid-19 is not greater than that associated with other common diseases such as the flu. In contrast, adults who have not been vaccinated are at greater risk of developing severe forms of the disease if they become infected.
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