The global outlook for 2024 includes more than 70 countries with elections y Latin America is no exception. El Salvador, Mexico, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Panama y Uruguay They must choose their new leaders. Will this next round be able to counteract the anti-government trend that marked the votes of recent years in the region?
Cases of Mexico, Venezuela and El Salvador They are witnesses of electoral contests that will mark the political agenda of the region.
Mexico will elect its first president
He June 2 the former mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum and the businesswoman Xochitl Galvez They will compete for the presidency, which, for the first time in the country’s history, will be in the hands of a woman.
Sheinbaum will seek to follow the president’s project Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) for six more years. In front, Galvezfrom the conservative opposition front, proposes giving a complete turn to the economic and social policies of the left in power.
“Gálvez recognizes himself as a descendant of native peoples, he dresses in traditional clothing and generally has raised the flag of the rights of indigenous peoples in Mexico“, he detailed to Page|12 Juan Negri, director of the Political Science degree at the Di Tella University. “We have two candidates, two women, one a very important Jewish scientist and another originally fromThat is to say, they speak of a diversity, of a country in which in reality most of the time it has been governed by a political elite not very connected with these minorities,” the analyst clarified.
Less than six months before the electoral contest, pollsters anticipate a victory for the candidate of Lopez Obradorwith 41 percent, on the representative of the Front For Mexico (PAN, PRI, PRD) with 35 percent. Likewise, the percentage of undecided people is high, above 20 percent.
Crucial issues such as drug trafficking, The orginazed crime and the immigration challenges to the United States They will be the focal points of the political agenda of both candidates in the race for the presidency.
Unknown about Maduro’s future
The upcoming elections in Venezuela constitute a crucial chapter in the political scene of that country, given the uncertainty surrounding the candidates. Although it is presumed that Nicolas Maduro will seek a third term, attention is focused on opposition candidates. In this context, the question arises about the possible participation of Maria Corina Machadoafter having been inabilited by the Comptroller General.
“Today, with all the dark sides that can be found, it is Maria Corina Machado the opposition figure who seems in a position to unite the opposition vote. The question is to see if he will be able to compete,” said the political analyst. Claudio Fantini in dialogue with this medium.
In October 2023, the National Primary Commission of Venezuela proclaimed Machado the winner of the opposition primaries for the 2024 elections, but the victory was tarnished when the Comptroller General of Venezuela issued a declaration of disqualification preventing her from running for public office, due to omission of food bonus payments in your sworn declaration of assets.
Now, The focus is on the Supreme Court, who will assume the role of arbitrator to analyze the case and issue a verdict on the viability of your candidacy. Without a clear closing date for the call for elections, despite the agreement signed in October between the ruling party and the opposition to hold elections presidential elections in the second half of 2024, uncertainty prevails.
This episode marks a turn in the Venezuelan political landscape, since Supreme Court’s final decision could have far-reaching repercussionssince it will not only determine the political future of Machadobut will also shed light on the stability of the electoral process in the country, at a time when expectations and tensions are increasing.
Despite his disqualification, Machado expressed optimism in an end-of-year message. “Full of hope and willing to take advantage of the real opportunity we have (…) On October 22 we showed that Venezuela has already changed, a political and social cycle has closed, we left behind an old way of doing politics. The primaries are a living mandate that we will enforce. The liberation and transformation of Venezuela through Free and fair presidential elections in 2024 are the path to peaceful change”, he expressed in a video on his social networks.
In the other side, Maduro generated more uncertainty by saying that “he does not know” if he will be the candidate of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) for 2024. “What I can tell you is that he is still premature. The year has just begun. Only God knows. We hope that the electoral scenarios of the process that will take place this year will be defined, and I am sure that, with God’s blessing, we will make the best decision,” he expressed, although emphasizing that the “Venezuelan people” will teach a lesson to the “empires of the world” with voting.
“In this decision about my eventual candidacy in 2024, neither personalistic nor individualistic ambitions, nor ego nor blue blood will ever be ahead, the interests of the country will be. AND When the decision is made, whatever it may be, we will all go out to conquer“added the current president.
Bukele goes for a new mandate
El Salvador will go to the polls on February 4in a contest that will once again have Nayib Bukele as candidatedespite questions from the opposition, which claims that at least five articles of the Constitution prohibit him from going for a second term.
The Supreme Court, with a pro-government majority, stipulated that to prevent a president who opts for re-election from prevailing in office You must leave it six months before the new period begins. Because of this, Bukele requested a leave from November 30 to dedicate himself to the electoral campaign.
“In El Salvador the result seems to be a foregone conclusion, Bukele there seems invincible. Doubts arise about how the rule of law and democracy in the country will survive after the forcing of constitutionality and institutionality that this new nomination of the current president implies,” he said. Jockeys.
After four years in office, Bukele is seeking re-election with high levels of popularity, mainly around his security policies. However, Human rights defenders at home and abroad question his methods because they believe that violate human rights.
The president faces the candidate Manuel Floresfrom the leftist Farabundo Martí Front for National Liberation (FMLN), y a Joel Sanchez, of the conservative Nationalist Republican Alliance (Arena), both with a low level of popularity among Salvadorans.
“Bukele is an authoritarian leader who has undermined Salvadoran democracy, but at the same time is immensely popular“Detailed Negri and added that “it is understandable that he wins again in a country that is plagued by gang violence and where the way in which Bukele dealt with violence has been very controversial, but very popular among Salvadorans.”
Uruguay, Panama and the Dominican Republic elect president
Uruguay has presidential elections on October 27. Although there are no confirmations yet about names, for the National Party The current Secretary of the Presidency intends to participate in the race, Alvaro Delgadoand the economist Laura Raffowho should face each other internally.
On the other side is the leftist coalition Wide Frontwhere the main candidates are Yamandu Orsi, current mayor of Canelones and Carolina Cosse, mayor of Montevideo. The latest polls indicate a slight percentage in favor of the Frente Amplio, but there remains a long road to the final decision.
In Panama, the date to designate authorities is May 5. Among the ten candidates in the race is the former president Ricardo Martinelli, owner of the most important supermarket chain in the country and sentenced to ten years in prison for money laundering. Martinelli is the favorite in the polls, with a platform that focuses on business development and security. In front of him is another former president, Martin Torrijosand the current Vice President Jose Gabriel Carrizo.
In Dominican Republic, meanwhile, the vote will be on June 30. President Luis Abinader, of the Modern Revolutionary Party, announced that he will be one of the candidates, and has at least 70% approval. Under his leadership, the Caribbean island had one of the highest GDP growth rates in Latin America, according to ECLAC.
Abinader will face a candidate who will have the support of three major opposition parties: the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD), the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) and Fuerza del Pueblo (FP). Opposition contenders include former president Leonel Fernandezfrom FP y Abel Martinez del PLD.
