“Although we understand that the deterioration of the Central Bank would lead to a CCL benchmark level higher than the current one, we want to make a warning regarding the behavior of the next two weeks,” said Norberto Sosa, from Investing in the Stock Market, in a document sent to the clients of said broker.
“September 1 should be the date on which the bonds that participate in the exchange process should be delivered, so there will be a week in which the market will be left with fewer vehicles to operate the MEP and the CCL. And we must not forget the parking of the surgery, therefore, we await a more complex and rarefied context for these days. Although the operation can be done through Argentine shares and ADR’s or Cedears, there are some international platforms that are not wanting to operate with Argentine shares for the conversion of shares to ADRs and, therefore, we believe that there will be a reduction volume, “added Sosa.
The IEB analyst also stated: “At the same time that the government is expected to intervene in the bond market. That is, in a market where there will be less volume, if there is really going to be an intervention by the Government, given that it has debt in public funds, we could be having two weeks with movements, both in the MEP and in the CCL that have nothing to do with the underlying trend. Only as of September 7 could we have a market that begins to normalize ”.
In line with these appraisals, the president of the consulting firm Wise, Walter Morales, said: “Two weeks of a pseudo exchange holiday are coming, because, as a result of the debt swap, there will be few bonds available to buy MEP and CCL. everything that is done will be with such a low volume that prices will not be referential. It is possible that the BCRA will take advantage of the situation to reduce the gap, buying against the dollar and selling against pesos. But the truth is that anything can happen with the value of the US bill. “
Meanwhile, a trader in the Argentine market warned: “Perhaps for a few days the CCL should fall, because companies that need to sell dollars against pesos do not have parking, so they can continue to do so, while buyers are going to have difficult operations” .
Regarding what will be the new bond that will replace AY24 as the most popular to convert to dollars, all analysts agree that the instrument with maturity in 2030 is a fixed one.
During the week, the CCL jumped 6.5% to close at $ 135, so the spread with the wholesale price closed at 83.5%. At the same time, the MEP dollar advanced 4.3% to $ 129.52. The blue is located at $ 138 and the retail official at $ 77.80.
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