Economic crisis has just started
, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe warned Sunday April 19.
This crisis is not a matter of weeks, not a matter of months, but a matter of years
, said Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire a few days earlier. In fact, few economists say that the French economy can return to its level of activity before the epidemic in a few weeks.
“A little rebound in activity”
The health crisis is not going to go away overnight, so we will have to find a way
for an economic recovery, suggests Michel Didier, president of the Rexecode cabinet, interviewed by AFP.
However, the scenario of a gradual deconfinement of the population from May 11 sketched by the government suggests that France will not necessarily advance quickly on this path.
At first, we could attend a small rebound in activity, simply because companies have destocked […] so if there is a little demand they will have to produce again
, adds Michel Didier.
But at what rate will employees be able to return to their place of work and how will the coordination and re-establishment of production chains at national and international level be done?
“At least one year of activity in slow motion”
The working and consumption environment will be greatly degraded until the arrival of a vaccine
, which the specialists do not announce before next year, indicates Xavier Ragot, president of the French Observatory of economic conjunctures (OFCE), which thus counts on a period at least one year of activity in slow motion
.
Especially since for a more or less long period, businesses and households, despite massive savings, risk remaining moderate in their spending.
Companies will wait for better visibility before starting to invest again, while households, facing a difficult job market, will also remain cautious
, estimates in a note William De Vijlder, chief economist at BNP Paribas.
Fear of a significant rise in unemployment
Companies will first of all prepare for the most urgent: organize the revival of their activity with new constraints to ensure the safety of their employees and schedule the reimbursement of credits obtained to hold during confinement, as well as that of taxes and contributions carried over by the government.
The latter has certainly promised to cancel charges, but only companies at risk of short-term bankruptcy will be able to benefit from it, particularly in the catering and event sectors.
Many companies will go bankrupt due to the colossal loss of activity, up to 80% in certain sectors
, judge Xavier Ragot. We do not realize that the crisis has not yet started and we will see it when companies are going to have their debts and wages to pay
after confinement, he adds, fearing a sharp rise in unemployment.
Convalescence
Rather than a recovery plan, we will have to put in place a recovery plan
, with a very gradual exit from the partial unemployment scheme and the solidarity fund, a plan to support massive state investment, and a monetary policy that remains accommodative to allow the state to go into debt, details he.
The French government will also have to deal with the European and international context. It will depend on the evolution of the epidemic among our main partners and on the European Union’s capacity to draw up an effective recovery plan and to come to the aid of a State which is in great difficulty, endangering the euro zone. .
For Europe, the subject is not to start again the dramatic scenario of 2012-2013
, with the Greek debt crisis for lack of agreement between the member states, warns Michel Didier, even if he judges the EU more ready
today.
– .
