I.n the Corona crisis, Germany is becoming a deeply divided country. On the one hand, there is the vast majority of the population who feel little or no loss as a result of the fight against pandemics and are not very worried about their own future. This beneficiary group includes pensioners, civil servants and a large part of the workforce.
On the other hand, part of society is experiencing an unprecedented economic crash. The self-employed in extremely badly hit sectors, as well as employees who were fired due to the crisis, are among the big losers in Corona times. This group is still strong in the minority, but it is growing because unemployment is spreading rapidly.
The depth of the new divide in society is demonstrated by the current data from the Household Crisis Barometer, which is created by the Leibniz Institute for Financial Market Research SAFE in cooperation with the market research institute Nielsen and the Goethe University Frankfurt.
also read
– – – – –
Households have been surveyed for this since the end of March and the results are representative. At 81 percent, the majority of the population has so far not had to cope with a drop in income, and 72 percent do not expect this in the coming time. 14 percent even expect rising income.
This further eased the mood compared to the first survey at the end of March. At the beginning of the shutdown of the economy, 17 percent had expected financial losses, now only 12 percent say so.
The relaxation is also reflected in consumer behavior. Currently, almost two thirds of the population do not want to forego major purchases of at least EUR 250 or postpone them. Six weeks ago, the level of uncertainty among the population was significantly greater.
At that time, only 54 percent had stated that they would continue to hold larger purchases. Obviously, most Germans also see no need to take special precautions because of the corona crisis. Three quarters of the respondents have not changed their saving behavior.
Financial losses for 3.5 million Germans
So while one part of society has so far come through the worst economic crisis since the end of the Second World War, the politically induced restrictions on contacts and the closure of many factories have hit millions of people all the more brutally. 2.1 million citizens already suffer existential financial losses.
This was the result of a survey carried out by the Kantar opinion research institute on behalf of Postbank, as reported by WELT AM SONNTAG. Another 3.5 million Germans suffer significant financial losses, 14.4 percent at least slight cuts. Overall, more than a fifth of the population has to make do with less money than before the crisis.
The budget crisis barometer shows that it is above all the self-employed who face severe financial difficulties in many cases – despite the extensive state aid provided to save the economy. In this way, only 38 percent of freelancers generate unchanged income.
In eleven percent of the self-employed, income fell by more than 80 percent; another eleven percent register a decline of 50 to 80 percent. Many employees who work for their own account also currently view the perspective much more bleakly than those employed.
The economic damage is already serious, for example for the tourism sector or gastronomy. The business closures have left deep traces in retail. The entire event, culture and trade fair industry is also suffering badly from the crisis.
“Germany is divided into two in the crisis,” says Andreas Hackethal from the Leibniz Institute SAFE. “Especially those who have taken entrepreneurial risk as self-employed have to cope with loss of income and uncertain prospects,” says the financial scientist.
Other sections of the population, such as pensioners or civil servants, need not worry at all, because they are safe in the crisis. “And both worlds often have nothing to do with each other, which is why the enormous problems of the severely affected are not even seen by many other people,” says the economist.
However, many employees think they are safer than they actually are. Because, as recent data from the Ifo Institute make clear, the corona crisis is becoming increasingly noticeable on the job market.
The short-time work allowance that companies have applied for for more than ten million employees is still buffing the force of the historic economic downturn. But the massive economic downturn will cost jobs in many industries.
According to the Ifo economic survey, 58 percent of businesses in the catering trade, 50 percent in hotels and 43 percent of travel agencies decided in April to lay off employees or not to extend fixed-term contracts. In the car industry, there are 39 percent of companies. “From now on, the crisis will hit the German job market,” says Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe.
Every fifth company wants to cut jobs
Almost 60 percent of the temporary employment agencies and recruiters cut their workforces; every second company fires employees at the leather goods and shoe manufacturers, and around 30 percent in metal production and printing.
Almost every fifth company across all industries is cutting jobs – an unprecedented crash. Many employees who think they are still well protected despite the recession will soon face difficult times.
Nevertheless, there are a number of areas that the poor economic situation cannot really harm. For example, employees in law firms, accountants and tax consultants are currently hardly affected by layoffs. The same applies to housing, construction, and the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. In many companies that have shutdowns due to Corona, production is now starting up again.
For restaurants, hotels and other businesses such as fitness and nail studios, at least easing has been decided or is being prepared. Differences apply depending on the federal state, especially since the number of infections varies greatly from region to region.
With the agreed easing, the daily work routine of many employees is also changing. As the household crisis barometer shows, many employees are already returning to work from their home office. Of those surveyed who can basically work from their home office, only about half use this now.
At the end of March it was 62 percent. Instead, there are increasing cases in which the home office is used sometimes, but not exclusively: This is indicated by 34 percent, compared to 23 percent at the start of the shutdown.
It fits that only 58 percent of those surveyed in the current survey stated that they avoided the public. A significant decrease compared to the end of March, when almost 80 percent hardly dared to go public due to fear of infection.
Purchase bonuses or consumer vouchers bring little
For the economist Roman Inderst from Frankfurt, the budget crisis barometer gives an indication of which government economic stimulus packages politicians should refrain from doing in any case: “Our data show that boosting domestic demand would do little good.”
Such economic incentives presuppose that even if production is back to normal and shops are open, there will be no demand due to the crisis. “Our survey results do not confirm these fears, or at least not so sharply,” emphasizes Inderst.
also read
– –
Scrapping bonus discussion – – – – –
There are always new suggestions for stimulating the economy. For example, the automotive industry is insisting on a government purchase premium in order to help the key sector, which has been hit hard, get on its feet. The Greens propose consumer vouchers for all citizens to support traders in the region.
Other countries have even spread so-called helicopter money among the people: in Hong Kong and the United States, all citizens receive an amount of money from the state.
Critics only expect a flash in the pan. In any case, the decisive factor for the consumer climate in the next few weeks and months in the corona crisis will be the question of whether the respective countries can get a lasting grip on the pandemic.
– –
