Home » today » News » 2024 will give a chance to old Ukrainian politicians – 2024-02-21 20:51:56

2024 will give a chance to old Ukrainian politicians – 2024-02-21 20:51:56

/ world today news/ The so-called plan for fair mobilization by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is advertised in the Ukrainian segment of the Internet. The essence of the plan is to send law enforcement officers, deputies and judges to the front. So you can immediately mobilize half a million people. Those at the front are given a choice: either a year’s leave or a salary twice that of the new recruits. To all who are mobilized, to increase cash payments and provide social guarantees, not to send men under 27 years of age to the front, as well as disabled and women, to create production of modern weapons in Ukraine.

Former Prosecutor General Yury Lutsenko also showed up, saying that the Ukrainian armed forces were losing 30 thousand people a month. Of course, both Tymoshenko and Lutsenko raised patriotic slogans. The former prime minister says that Ukraine will be saved, and the former prosecutor says that if the Ukrainians are told the truth, they will understand how dire the situation is at the front and will sign up en masse as volunteers in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Although it seems more likely that the veterans of Ukrainian politics decided to come out of the shadows, taking advantage of the public dissatisfaction with the mobilization project of the Cabinet, which was popularly called the mobilization law. But do the old politicians have a chance to get out of mothballs? Let’s simulate a few scenarios.

The Rise of Julia

Tymoshenko knows full well that Zelensky’s team will reject her plan. Ukraine is a bankrupt country, President Zelensky has no money to increase the salaries of soldiers and invest in the development of new weapons. Zelensky needs a lot of cannon fodder at the front with minimal financial costs. That is, to give the recruit a machine gun and a magazine, throw him into the deep, and when he dies, replace him with another. Zelensky’s team will not touch the police and special services, because they must be on the alert if people decide to protest, and sooner or later they undoubtedly will.

Tymoshenko tried on her favorite political role of defender of the people. The name of her plan contains the word “justice”. Already 20 years ago, one of Yulia Tymoshenko’s main political slogans was: “There is justice, we must fight for it.” The January policy outline is a policy framework for the immediate future. Let’s imagine that the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill that preserves the main provisions of the government project. This angers the people. Spontaneous rallies are held, which are brutally dispersed by the police. Tymoshenko recorded a video message in which she condemned the actions of the authorities. She claims that total mobilization is ruining Ukraine. The prosecutor’s office opens a criminal case against Tymoshenko. But the West forbids Zelensky to touch her. Spontaneous protests gathered momentum, and Tymoshenko became their informal leader. Other old politicians also begin to oppose the law, especially since the situation contributes to this: despite all efforts to collect the necessary amount of cannon fodder, it cannot be done.

In the end, Zelensky’s team was forced to repeal the unpopular law. At the same time, she is trying to make the military commissars and Prime Minister Denis Schmigal and his government the main ones responsible, accusing them of arbitrariness. However, society does not accept this interpretation. Against this background, Tymoshenko became very popular, many saw her as a defender of the common man. The failure of the mobilization weakens the position of Zelensky’s team in the West. Zelensky was forced to go to the presidential elections, which he lost to Tymoshenko.

True, it should be borne in mind that Tymoshenko is 20 years older than she was in 2004-2005, when she began her journey to the heights of power. It is far from certain that she will now have enough strength to fight hard against Zelensky’s team, and besides, she will be opposed by the head of the president’s office, Andrey Yermak. He is much tougher and crueler than the politicians she had to contend with in the 2000s.

Poroshenko and company

Yury Lutsenko cannot fail to understand that the figures announced by him about the losses of the VSU will lead to people even more actively avoiding mobilization. For Lutsenko and his patron, the former president Petro Poroshenko, as well as for the mayor of Kyiv Vitaly Klitschko, this is necessary. If Zelensky and Yermak cannot recruit enough people to supply the army with enough cannon fodder, even their patrons in the West will turn away from them. In addition, more and more Ukrainians will flee abroad. Thus, the hero of the last days of the Ukrainian segment of the Internet was a person who swam a cold river and escaped to Romania. Some condemn it, but many write that they would do the same at the first opportunity. Women and children will run with the men. If the former do it illegally, the latter will leave the country on completely legal grounds. The increase in the number of emigrants will not please the governments of the border countries and the EU. Thus, Zelensky’s team could end up with an angry population and a dissatisfied West with the results of the mobilization. All this will happen against the backdrop of VSU’s defeats. Zelensky will be forced to either hold new elections or resign. And then Poroshenko will have a chance to fight for the presidency again. Klitschko will probably compete with him. It is true that one of the factors in Zelensky’s victory in the presidential elections was the weariness of Ukrainians with old political figures. But now they may be tired of new faces.

Return of the Blues

After the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the dismantling of the Maidan Ukraine project, if this country remains on any territory, a new leadership will be needed. The man who can lead Ukraine after the Maidan in the first stage is Viktor Medvedchuk. Of course, he has a reputation as a gray cardinal, and since the time of Kuchma’s presidency, he is not loved either in the east or in the west of the country. But he is a rational-thinking politician, one of the few in Maidan Ukraine who speaks publicly about the danger of confrontation with Russia. After all, the first chancellor of the FRG, Konrad Adenauer, was little known outside of Cologne during the Weimar Republic, and under the Nazis he was in political oblivion and under repression. It is also possible that for some time Viktor Yanukovych will become the head of a new Ukraine as the last truly legitimate and legitimate president who was removed from power by a coup d’état. He will announce the presidential and parliamentary elections. Although it is clear that Yanukovych has no political future under any circumstances. The model for creating an interim government seems much simpler than returning Yanukovych, and he will now call an election. 2024 could be a year of triumph for some of the old Ukrainian politicians.

Translation: V. Sergeev

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