Ukraine has been holding back a full-scale Russian aggression for 100 days. Western countries are convinced of the inevitability of Ukraine’s victory in this war.
June 3 is the hundredth day of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, which the occupiers call a “special operation.” For three months, Moscow has not achieved any of its primary goals and has now thrown all its strength into gaining a foothold in southern Ukraine and occupying the Donbass. Experts say that the maximum that Russia can achieve in the near future is occupy the entire Lugansk region. At the same time, the Kremlin is considering the seizure of Kyiv and Kharkov. Korrespondent.net tells what to expect next.
Zelensky promises victory for Ukraine
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the Ukrainians on the 100th day after the full-scale Russian invasion.
“We have been defending Ukraine for 100 days already. Victory is ours. Glory to Ukraine!” Zelensky said in a video message next to representatives of the President’s Office, the Verkhovna Rada and the government. Video recorded against the background of the OPU building.
Zelensky calculated that during the 100 days of the war, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated 1,017 settlements from Russian invaders. During this time, 370 settlements were cleared of mines and more than 700 road connections were opened.
As of June 3, Russia has occupied 20 percent of the territory of Ukraine or 2.6 thousand settlements. This is almost 125 thousand square kilometers. This is more than the area of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg combined.
About 300,000 square kilometers are contaminated with mines and unexploded ordnance. In 100 days, Russia fired nearly 2,500 missiles at Ukraine.
Almost 12 million people became internally displaced, more than five million went abroad.
The number of dead Ukrainians is not officially called. The UN speaks of about four thousand dead civilians and about the same number of wounded. At the same time, according to local authorities, more than 22,000 residents were killed in Mariupol alone.
As for the death of military personnel, this information is a military secret until the end of the war that Russia unleashed. However, the authorities report that the military is killed by an order of magnitude less than civilians. Recently, Zelensky said that 60-100 soldiers have been dying in the Donbas lately.
The invaders have everything “according to plan”
On June 3, the Kremlin announced that they had achieved “certain results” with the war against Ukraine and would continue it “until the fulfillment of all tasks.”
“The main, one of the main goals of the special operation is to protect people in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics”, in terms of ensuring their protection, measures are being taken, certain results have been achieved,” Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian ruler, said at a briefing.
He claims that the Russian invaders “liberated many settlements” in the Donbas, which allowed them “to move on to establishing a peaceful life.”
“This work will continue until the moment when all the goals of the military operation are achieved,” Peskov added.
Three boilers for APU. What Russia is up to in Donbas
It should be noted that today the Russian side reported on the meeting of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, who is believed to be the head of the “party of war” in the Russian Federation.
According to Kadyrov, Shoigu has identified new tasks that imply the improvement of further tactics. “The measures taken will make it possible to significantly increase the effectiveness of offensive maneuvers, which contributes to the conduct of the “special operation” at a faster pace,” he said after the meeting.
British intelligence says Russia has not achieved a single goal
British intelligence, which during the full-scale Russian invasion became one of the most authoritative sources of information about the war against Ukraine, released the traditional daily report, which says that in the 100 days of the war, Moscow has not achieved any of its original objectives.
According to British intelligence, persistent Ukrainian resistance prevented the Russian army from capturing Kyiv and the Gostomel airfield. After the failure of the original plan due to faulty assumptions and bad tactics, Russia is trying to achieve tactical success in the Donbas.
“The Russian Federation controls more than 90 percent of the Lugansk region and is likely to establish full control in the next two weeks,” the UK Defense Ministry said in a report.
They added that recent tactical successes have been achieved at the cost of significant losses of resources and the concentration of forces on one part of the overall campaign.
At the same time, on other fronts, the Russian army was unable to create a movement and went on the defensive.
“Russia has achieved these latest tactical successes with a significant expenditure of resources, as well as the concentration of force and fire on one part of the overall campaign. Russia was unable to create a maneuver or movement on other fronts or directions, they all went on the defensive. In order for the Russian Federation to achieve at least some success, it will require constant large investments and considerable time,” the intelligence says.
What experts say about Russia’s future plans
What to expect in the near future – a decisive battle at the front or freezing the conflict and moving to the stage of negotiations? Konstantin Mashovets, coordinator of the Information Resistance group, believes that Russia will probably try to seize the entire Donetsk and Lugansk regions before July.
Russia has already stated that it is in July that it is possible to hold the so-called “referenda on joining the Russian Federation” in the occupied territories of Donbass and the Kherson region.
The founder of the investigation group Conflict Intelligence Team Ruslan Leviev, in turn, says that Russia has a chance to completely capture the Lugansk region, but as for the Donetsk region, “there is still fighting and fighting.” Wherein the Kremlin is considering campaigns on Kyiv and Kharkov.
“The chief generals and Putin absolutely sincerely believe that the war is going well for Russia. Therefore, after the Donbass, their wish list really includes some kind of Kharkiv region or even a new attack on Kyiv,” – said He June 3 Present.
However, Russia simply will not have any resources for new attacks on the Kharkov and Kyiv regions.
“Parts of the reservists who have now been recruited, as I said, are 30-40 battalion tactical groups, this figure is not bad, but this is not a figure that will additionally open a new direction of attack on Kharkov or Kyiv,” the expert said.
According to him, if the Russian army wants to carry out a real mobilization, then it will no longer have people who will have to train recruits – all the teachers will go to the front.
But Russia has reserves and “it will still be able to fight for quite a long time,” says Leviev.
“But how much specifically – even the General Staff does not know about it. Why? Because in the Russian army there is a serious process of harboring, which has been developing for decades,” he said, adding that the information about 98 percent of working armored vehicles always reached the Russian General Staff, although this figure could not exceed 60 percent.
Aleksey Yezh, an analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, agrees with the thesis that there are no longer any Russian forces for large-scale operations.
At the same time, the Kremlin will try to keep Ukraine on its toes in the future, mainly to show Kyiv’s Western allies that aid must be cut off because “Russia will never be defeated anyway.”
In addition, it is quite possible that Moscow is preparing to conduct “dagger operations” on Ukrainian territory.
“What is a dagger attack? For example, the Kherson grouping of the Russian Federation, Ukrainian troops begin to successfully counterattack, cut into pieces, and at that moment Russia will be able to send certain forces to small attacks in the Chernihiv region or even in the Kyiv region. ready,” explained BBC Ukraine expert.
What experts say about Ukraine’s counter-offensive
In Ukraine, they have been talking about a “powerful counteroffensive” almost since mid-spring. Experts and officials are confident that the Armed Forces are preparing to inflict the most powerful blow on the Russian occupiers.
To date, some successes of limited counter-offensives in the Kherson regionwhich started at the end of May. The enemy was knocked out from near Kharkov to the state border. On June 3, it was also reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were ousting the invaders from the suburbs of Severodonetsk.
Ukraine and Russia are just getting ready for a really powerful attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, says Yezh.
Mikhail Samus, a military expert at the Ukrainian Center for Research on the Army, Conversion and Disarmament, says that a feature of the “battle for Donbass” is that Russia is losing equipment there, while Ukraine, on the contrary, is accumulating, because every day more and more western artillery.
“NATO artillery is a slightly different level than the Soviet one. This is range, accuracy, all processes are automated. This means that in counter-battery combat, the enemy has a range of 20 kilometers, and you have 30 kilometers. Plus the speed of use: you came, took the coordinates of the drone , worked, left. Literally five minutes for everything, “- said on Medusa.
According to him, thanks to the offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv direction, it may soon turn out that instead of moving towards Slavyansk, the Russian group in Izyum will have to turn around sharply and try to break into Russian territory.
“The fact is that Ukraine fights a little differently than Russia. Ukraine more often uses not the tactics of frontal attacks, but the cutting of logistics [противника], control systems, enemy fire supply systems. And then the enemy decides for himself what to do: continue trying to move without fuel and ammunition or fight back,” the expert said.
According to Samus, in the south, Ukraine has every opportunity to de-occupy Kherson and other territories, as well as strike at the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation.
“While Kadyrov is trying to take Severodonetsk, Russia may receive several surprises. And these may not even be tactical, but operational surprises that will affect the strategic picture,” he said.
The military expert believes that Ukraine needs to focus on the de-occupation of territories. “For this task – to destroy command posts in the depths [позиций] enemy, supply systems, logistics – range [ракет] 100-150 kilometers will be enough,” he commented on the supply of Western weapons.
Possible negotiations will begin only when the Russian offensive in the Donbass fizzles out and Ukraine begins to launch a counteroffensive.
“When Russian generals tell Putin that the situation needs to be fixed quickly, things can get much worse and it is not clear how he will react [российский] people, if [будет] 40-50 thousand dead… At this point, I’m sure Putin will say that Russia has always been in favor of negotiations,” says Samus.
He believes that during the negotiations, Ukraine should talk about the complete de-occupation of Crimea and Donbass. “In points [переговоров], which were considered with the delegation headed by Medinsky, spoke about 15 years of negotiations on the Crimea. I think now it will look different, but Putin from the Crimea issue [и Донбасса] It’s not going anywhere,” he said.
All experts agree that Ukraine needs heavy weapons for a successful counterattack, otherwise the Armed Forces of Ukraine will suffer large and senseless losses of manpower.
Retired U.S. Navy Captain First Rank, Former Head of the NATO Military Mission in Russia Harry Tabah thinksthat without superiority in the sky, Ukraine will never be able to launch a counteroffensive.
“Maybe he can. But, in my experience, a counter-offensive without superiority in the sky is deadly … Where are these planes that should have arrived from Poland more than three months ago? For some reason they have been forgotten about and nothing is said . Again, this is a game of diplomats and politicians,” says Tabah.
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