Protests against Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus continue, and some foreign experts have even stressed that the days of Europe’s last dictator are numbered. In that case, the question is – who could lead Belarus after Lukashenko’s fall? TVNET, together with Beaati Livdansk, a researcher at the Center for Eastern European Policy Studies, has put together a number of potential candidates.
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Livdanska points out that one of the potential faces of the future of Belarus could be Svetlana Tikhanovska, who is still in Lithuania and whose pre-election platform was directly related to the replacement of Lukashenko. She could come to power if there were an end-to-end vote transfer and a fairly reasonable assumption that Tikhanovsky had won the election. Unfortunately, the transfer of votes is unlikely to happen.
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Tihanovska’s opportunities are also limited by her position as an authority in the security and administrative structures of Belarus. Consequently, she is also in a way connected with the old and very unpopular Lukashenko regime. Moreover, in these structures is still very much influence Lukashenko himself. Consequently, it is very difficult to imagine that it would be easy for her to influence these structures and bring about real change.
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Finally, Tihanovska also has no real experience in politics and has left the country for the time being. Consequently, the question is whether she will be able to communicate effectively with the public and the Lukashenko regime in the future. Perhaps her actions would create even more chaos in an already difficult situation.
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Svetlana Tihanovska
PHOTO: Jonny Pickup / SIPA / Jonny Pickup / SIPA
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Babariko has long been considered one of the Belarusian opposition favorites. Unfortunately, he is in custody and has been prosecuted. If Babariko were on his feet now, it is possible that more people would have voted for him in the election than for Tikhanovska. This is because Babariko received the most support in the pre-election internet polls. “Of course we can discuss their legitimacy,” Livdanska said. Thus, victory in the elections and a hypothetical transfer of votes could ensure Babariko’s return to power.
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In addition to imprisonment, Babariko could also limit his involvement with Russia, as it is possible that the politician is funded by entities loyal to Moscow. For the time being, it is difficult to say how these ties could be viewed by the people of Belarus, but it is very likely that it wants Belarus to choose the political middle ground – it will not touch either the West or Russia.
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Viktor Babariko
FOTO: VASILY FEDOSENKO/REUTERS
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Livdanska claims that Cepkalo was also very popular in the pre-election fight. At first it looked like he and Babariko could throw the biggest challenge to Lukashenko. Cepkalo’s trump card on the way to getting behind the wheel of Belarus in a hypothetical scenario could be his clear program. He had a fairly detailed economic reform plan in the run-up to the election, which included the development of the IT and other technology sectors. It is important that he has previous experience in these fields. Cepkalo also stands out from the rest of the candidates in that he has a clear vision of the world in which he wants to see Belarus in the future. In this dimension, he has emphasized the need to move closer to European countries (without saying loudly that this would mean greater integration with the European Union or NATO).
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Cepkalo is currently facing similar challenges as Babariko. He is being prosecuted and is currently in Ukraine. “Even if the current situation were to level off and a new election is announced, it is difficult to imagine how he could return to Belarus. This criminal process would definitely still be valid, “says Livdanska.
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Valery Cepkalo
PHOTO: Reuters / Scanpix
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Svetlana Tikhanovsky’s husband, blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky, initially challenged Lukashenko with the same platform now used by his wife. He publicly declared that he did not want to take power – just overthrow Lukashenko. It is possible that this approach could play in favor of his popularity in the event of the overthrow of Lukashenko.
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However, Tihanovsky’s return to the Belarusian political scene would be very difficult precisely because of the human aspect. He is currently in custody and has suffered a great deal in a detention center. Livdanska believes that he will definitely be in detention for quite some time. She recalls that another famous oppositionist, Mikola Statkevich, once spent 5 years in prison. He was released only after Belarus sought to improve relations with the European Union and released political prisoners. “Therefore, the main question here is whether and when he will be released,” says the researcher.
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Statement by Sergei Tikhanovsky on the start of the presidential election
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Relatively smaller opposition players could still claim the throne of Belarus – Andrei Dmitryev a Anna Kanapatskaja. These candidates made it clear that Belarus needs to move closer to the European Union and become more democratic. However, both formal and informal polls indicate that their support is relatively low and they are not as popular as the people named above.
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At the same time, Svetlana Tihanovska, together with her office, has set up a coordination council, whose primary task is to establish a dialogue with the current government in order to ensure the transfer of power. The presidium of this council would be Pavel Latška, who is a former director, ambassador and minister of the Janika Kupala Theater. He was fired after saying during protests that he was proud to be a Belarusian. It is possible that in case of new elections, he could also run.
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In conclusion, however, Livdansk calls attention to the fact that the situation in Belarus is developing very rapidly and it is very likely that in the near future we will see unprecedented faces on the Belarusian political scene. A similar opinion was expressed in the interview by Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs, who emphasized that no noticeable leaders have emerged among the protesters yet, but this cannot continue for so long.
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