With the death of Al Qaeda leader and ‘9/11 brain’ Ayman Al Zawahiri in Kabul, the Americans again cross an important name off the list of wanted terrorists. It is a major blow to Al Qaeda, but the terrorist organization has not played a major role since the death of Osama Bin Laden in 2011. However, the fact that Al Zawahiri was able to hide in Kabul further jeopardizes the already shaky agreement between the Taliban and the US.
Al Zawahiri was already seen under bin Laden as the second man of Al Qaeda. After bin Laden’s death, he was the logical choice as successor. In recent years there have been rumors that Al Zawahiri is already dead. These could never be confirmed, as could stories that he was in poor health.
While bin Laden was the face of the terror group and raised large sums of money, Al Zawahiri was the tactical mastermind. He was the one who organized the attack on the World Trade Center in New York on September 11, 2001. He was also responsible for planning many other bombings, such as the one on the London Underground on 7 July 2005, which killed 56 people.
Despite Al Zawahiri’s leadership, Al Qaeda has been serious since bin Laden’s death impaired. Being experts divided about how serious the threat posed by Al Qaeda is. In the meantime, many local Al Qaeda leaders have also been killed, but with the loss of Al Zawahiri, the terror group has been decapitated for good. Whether that is actually the death blow for Al Qaeda remains to be seen. The group is still a symbol and source of inspiration for other terrorist organizations.
Experts warn against a scenario similar to that of Islamic State (IS) and the Taliban. Then-US President Donald Trump declared in 2019 that ISIS had been “completely defeated”. That was a lot analysts disagree with him. Splits from the terrorist organization, such as in the Afghan province Khorasan, committed bloody attacks ever since. A comparable revival of Al Qaeda is not impossible, although it is difficult to say how likely it is.
The Taliban were ousted by the Americans in 2001 as rulers in Afghanistan. Undefeated, the jihadists regrouped patiently in the Afghan mountains and struck last year when the Americans began to withdraw. After a short advance, this led to a new takeover of power in August. The Taliban promised to allow more freedoms, but so far little has come of it.
Taliban violate promise again
It is striking that Al Zawahiri was killed in the Afghan capital Kabul. The Americans withdrew their troops from Afghanistan last year after a deal with the Taliban. It was closed in 2020 in Doha, the capital of Qatar. In exchange for the military withdrawal of the United States, the jihadists would not harbor terrorists.
It distrust reviewing that deal increased further when it was found that the Taliban failed to fulfill other promises after they returned to power. Despite previous commitments, women, journalistn and burgers again heavily suppressed by the jihadists.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said after Al Zawahiri’s death that the Taliban “blatantly violated” the Doha agreement by the Al Qaeda leader shelter to offer. According to American intelligence, he was there less than a year. That means he came to Kabul after the Taliban took power.
The Taliban claim that the Americans are jeopardizing the deal. A spokesman condemned the attack as a violation of “international principles”. The jihadists did not confirm that Al Zawahiri was the one who was killed. It is highly unlikely that the terrorist leader was in Kabul without the knowledge of those in power.
While the already fragile deal has been badly damaged, the chances of the US sending troops to Afghanistan again are negligible. In his speech, US President Joe Biden referred to his promise to withdraw all US military personnel from Afghanistan and said he would stick to it. The war on terror still makes victims more than twenty years after ‘9/11’, but the US no longer has the will to have a military presence everywhere.
Biden has his high profile target to grab
Biden made it clear in his speech announcing the death of Al Zawahiri that the attack still counts as revenge for 9/11. He stressed that “America will never stop chasing the people behind 9/11.”
It means that Biden, like his predecessors, can also claim an important target. George W. Bush was able to show off the capture of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, Barack Obama was allowed to announce bin Laden’s death and under Trump the head of Islamic State, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, was killed.
That is a welcome success in a period when Bidens popularity among the American population is very low. A success that is also very convenient for Biden and the Democrats towards the important midterm elections. Those are in November, and Democrats run a real risk of losing their majority in the House of Representatives.
Biden does not necessarily claim Al Zawahiri’s death as a personal achievement. The president hailed the “great patriots who work in intelligence and counterterrorism” as the real heroes. But Biden, too, is not above milking such actions if they bring him political gain.
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