Close allies – the United States and Saudi Arabia – have entered a sharp diplomatic battle. Washington has declared Riyadh guilty of the murder of Saudi journalist Khashoggi, making it clear that the relationship will no longer be the same. The Saudis, completely dependent on America in the military sphere, have felt their vulnerability and will most likely start looking for new partners. How is this situation beneficial for Russia?
The new US administration decided to revive the scandalous murder of 2018, one of the defendants of which is considered the Saudi Crown Prince, who is also the Minister of Defense of the Kingdom, Mohammed bin Salman. Last Friday, the US National Intelligence released a report stating that the prince personally approved the execution of the Washington Post columnist, a citizen of Arabia, Jamal Khashoggi (Khashoggi), as he considered the journalist a threat to the security of the kingdom.
President Joe Biden promised to unveil on Monday new strategy relations with the kingdom, which until recently was considered the main pillar of the United States in the Islamic world. Biden also announced sanctions against 76 citizens of Arabia, guilty, in his opinion, not only of the murder of Khashogji, but also of repression against dissidents. The US Treasury has already imposed personal sanctions against the prince’s closest aide, former deputy head of the Kingdom’s General Intelligence Service, Ahmed Asiri.
“Overall, we are reviewing the relationship in its entirety to ensure that it better reflects our interests and values in the future,” Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said earlier. He explained that the “recalibration” of cooperation will also affect the supply of weapons, which Donald Trump agreed on. “We are striving to ensure that in the long term what we supply goes to the defense of the kingdom, and not to allow it to conduct offensive operations,” the head of the State Department said.
Back in 2018, hot on the heels, the US Senate unanimously – with the votes of both Democrats and Republicans – laid down responsibility for the murder of Khashoggi is on Prince bin Salman. However, neither this verdict nor special report The UN Human Rights Council (which also pointed out the guilt of the Saudi authorities in the “extrajudicial execution” of the journalist) did not shake Donald Trump’s desire to cooperate with Riyadh. Thus, the largest arms deal in the history of the United States, worth $ 109.7 billion, remained in force. The arms contract meant, in particular, the supply of missiles, bombs, armored vehicles, THAAD missile defense systems and coastal zone warships. For the Saudis, who have been intervening in Yemen since 2015, such supplies are essential.
Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov sees in Washington’s decision to “punish” the Saudis as an example of the clash of liberal fundamentalism with an absolute monarchy, which has nothing to do with liberalism. At the same time, the United States itself during the January storming the Capitol demonstrated internal instability to the Saudis, the expert said.
“Arabs generally do not forgive manifestations of weakness. But even earlier, under Trump, they realized that the United States could no longer be a reliable guarantor of their stability.
because at any moment the Americans can leave the Middle East altogether, becoming isolated on their internal problems. The Saudis need a new overlord, the kingdom is looking for a new patron, ”the source explained.
“As the war in Yemen has shown, in its power component, Saudi Arabia is a very vulnerable country. Its army has the most modern technology, but it is still weak. This is the second reason for the search for a new patron, ”added Sivkov. Against this background, the expert does not rule out, Russia’s influence on Saudi Arabia will grow in the near future.
“Unlike Washington, Moscow has shown its consistency in its policy in the Middle East, including consistency in relations with Riyadh. Our country is strengthening its authority in the region. And not only due to the military operation in Syria, but also thanks to subtle diplomacy, the ability to negotiate with everyone: Arabs, Turks, Iran and Israel, “the expert listed.
According to Sivkov, the conflict between the United States and the Saudis may lead to the opening of the Saudi market for the supply of military-industrial complex products from Russia. “We have already entered this market. The Kingdom bought from us, in particular, BMP-3. But now the Saudis will be interested in the entire spectrum of our weapons. First of all, these are the S-400 complexes, which are significantly superior to the American Patriots, which the Saudis still have. Second: short-range anti-aircraft missile systems, which provide defense against drones and cruise missiles. These are “Carapace” and “Thor”. Electronic warfare means – in this area, our country is ahead of the rest. Perhaps, separate deliveries of our products for the Navy. Tanks and aircraft are unlikely, because the Saudi army is saturated with these products, and these are American samples, “Sivkov explained.
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, warns that the Saudis are very specific clients. “When it comes to military-technical cooperation, the Saudis buy a disproportionate amount of weapons, and a significant part of this is not used. In reality, these purchases are purely political in nature: under the guise of buying weapons, Saudi Arabia is buying favors, security guarantees, and the absence of criticism, ”Pukhov told the VZGLYAD newspaper.
In theory, Riyadh can buy anything from Russia – airplanes, S-400 missiles, a new batch of Kalashnikov assault rifles. “It is extremely difficult to predict what exactly the Saudis will ask of us, because they see it as a“ bribe ”from Russia for its loyalty to itself both within the region and on the world stage,” the source explained.
Pukhov considers the kingdom to be the largest defense market among countries that do not have their own developed defense industry. “It does not have its own defense production, it imports 95% of all weapons. It turns out that, on the one hand, he needs everything, on the other hand, all this is already there. And since the main motivation of Saudi Arabia when buying weapons is to “suck up” to the country of sale, it has always bought a lot from the USA, a little less from the UK, a little more from France, and recently started buying from China. Now, when Russia is pursuing such an active foreign policy in the Middle East, the Saudis have understood that they need to thank us a little, too, ”the expert explained.
Former Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation of the Ministry of Defense, PIR Center expert Yevgeny Buzhinsky also does not exclude that arms shipments from Russia to the kingdom may now expand. “It’s possible. Saudi Arabia, for example, was interested in the S-400. We can sell weapons, but the Americans will of course object. In theory, there are more opportunities for us in Saudi Arabia than in Turkey. Now the kingdom’s army is staffed in all types: aircraft, ships, tanks. 90% of these are American weapons. If there is any French, then this is an isolated case. As you know, Russian weapons are not always compatible with American equipment, ”the expert recalled.
It is worth noting that the quarrel with Washington coincided with another trouble for Riyadh – on Sunday, the capital of the kingdom was subjected to an air attack from the Houthi rebels from neighboring Yemen. The Houthis said that with the help of missiles and drones, they managed to deliver accurate strikes against important targets not only in the capital, but also in the cities of Abha and Khamis Mushait in southwestern Arabia, reported RIA Novosti… Rocket attacks on the Saudi capital continued on Monday night. Air defense means – most likely the American Patriots – managed to shoot down one enemy ballistic missile. But the Saudis are not quite happy with the effectiveness of the air defense system.
The kingdom experienced the last such massive air strike in September 2019, when American air defense systems were unable to repel a strike on Arabian oil refineries. A month later, Dmitry Shugaev, director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation of Russia, said: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates again showed interest in acquiring domestic short-range and medium-range anti-aircraft systems, Pantsir-S and Tor-M2E, respectively.
What already noted VZGLYAD newspaper, the distance between Washington and Riyadh opens up opportunities for Moscow as well. Given the long-standing interest the Saudi military to the Russian S-400 Triumph air defense systems and other types of equipment, the Russian military-industrial complex will be able to significantly expand its presence in the Arabian Peninsula. In 2015, Riyadh even confessed to desire buy Iskander.
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