In Venezuela, after the elections in early December twenty from the United Socialist Party (PSUV), the party of President Nicolàs Maduro, the new National Assembly, the country’s main legislative body and the last one still controlled by the opposition, took office on Tuesday. The ceremony was considered very important because it effectively handed over the National Assembly to the control of the regime, which in recent years has become increasingly authoritarian; at the same time, the opposition, which boycotted the December vote, saw its room for maneuver and influence in national politics further shrink.
Furthermore, the passage of the National Assembly under the control of the regime will make the life of the opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, until yesterday president of the Assembly and recognized as legitimate president by a large part of the international community, extremely complicated. During his inauguration, Guaidó spoke of an alternative parliament: the so-called “delegated commission”, born from the previous decision of the Assembly to extend its mandate by operating in parallel with the parliament that won the December elections.
The situation is very complicated: in practice in Venezuela today there are two presidents and two parliaments, even if the main international newspapers agree that Maduro has in fact re-established his control over the Venezuelan political system and that Guaidó, weakened, will try to resist. His chances of success are mostly considered slim, especially now that Guaidó will be left without institutional legitimacy.
Up to here: the elections and the installation of the new National Assembly
In the elections for the renewal of the Assembly in 2015 the opposition won: the Venezuelan regime had been in power for 16 years now, it had taken victory for granted and the opposition, that year, had been able to present itself strong and with a unified message .
In the first years of coexistence with the regime, the Assembly caused several difficulties for Maduro, who however managed to maintain control of all the other institutions and of the army. Things changed a lot after the presidential elections of 2018, which Maduro won thanks to widespread fraud: precisely because of the fraud, the Assembly declared Maduro illegitimate president and appointed as interim president the second in line of succession, that is the president of the Assembly itself and opposition leader, Juan Guaidó.
Since then, it was January 2019, there have been two presidents in Venezuela, each of whom called the other a “usurper”. Much of the international community – the United States, Europe and most Latin American countries – has recognized Guaidó as the legitimate president.
Despite large and initial protests, which later subsided, Maduro retained control of the country, and soon created another legislative body, the so-called Constituent Assembly, to replace the National Assembly and give a semblance of legitimacy to his government. Maduro at one point even got elected a second president of the National Assembly. And, in the long run, this situation has seriously weakened Juan Guaidó.
It is in that situation that the elections for the renewal of the National Assembly took place in December: with the opposition divided between those who asked to boycott the vote and those who asked not to, because despite the expected irregularities it would have been better to maintain a presence in the Assembly rather than being excluded altogether.
Eventually, much of the opposition boycotted the vote and Maduro, with the PSUV and other small Chavista parties his allies, He had won obtaining 256 seats out of 277 in the unicameral parliament (among others, Maduro’s son and wife were also elected). American diplomacy had called the legislative elections a “political farce”, the European Union had not considered them “credible” and many Latin American countries had criticized the lack of transparency and the absence of international observers. Only 30 percent of those eligible had gone to vote.
On Tuesday 5 January, surrounded by a strong police presence, the newly elected deputies entered the hall carrying portraits of the revolutionary hero Simón Bolívar and the late Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s predecessor. They elected former Information Minister Jorge Rodríguez as president of the Assembly, who then has written on Twitter that “the people” have returned to the National Assembly building to “regain the power that was cruelly stolen … we will triumph!”. Rodríguez said he wanted to work to foster dialogue and reconciliation, but he also added that crimes have been committed that must “be paid for”.
I congratulate the installation of the #NewNationalAssembly, on a historic day that opens paths of hope for our Homeland. I reiterate to your deputies my commitment and full willingness to work together for the economic recovery and the consolidation of Peace. pic.twitter.com/CvHyX6SNfw
– Nicolás Maduro (@NicolasMaduro) January 5, 2021
Meanwhile, Guaidó
On December 26, the opposition members had established that the former National Assembly should extend its mandate, operating in parallel with the parliament that won the December elections and through a “delegated commission” composed of 20 people and chaired by Juan Guaidó . The opposition’s reasoning had been the same as in 2019, when Guaidó proclaimed himself interim president because the re-election of Nicolas Maduro was not deemed valid.
Today the opposition argues that on December 6 there were no free elections, and that consequently there can be no new Assembly.
Guaidó openly challenged the legitimacy of the new Assembly on Tuesday, and spoke of a meeting of the delegated commission, which was held in an unknown location to avoid repression by police or Maduro supporters: it is not clear how many lawmakers attended. at the session, but Guaidó was “confirmed” at the head of Parliament and as the “interim president” of the country. He promised to resist, to guarantee the continuity of the work of the parliamentarians elected in 2015 and launched an appeal for unity. “This is the struggle of a people in favor of democracy, the dictatorship wants to bring the debate to Guaidó against Maduro, but it is not so, it is the struggle for rights and justice”. And again: “We will only recover our country together (…) The constitutional continuity of parliament is not a whim, it is a duty”.
Today we begin the constitutional continuity of the @Assembly and we ratify the Board of Directors.
We are standing not only because of the institutions and legitimate dialogue that Parliament represents, but also because of millions of Venezuelans who want change. # ANLegitimaFollowFoot pic.twitter.com/Udes33ZZWZ
– Juan Guaidó (@jguaido) January 6, 2021
However, Guaidó’s strategy is not widely shared. According to some, such as the political scientist Jesus Castillo Molleda, this administrative continuity has no constitutional legal basis. Guaidó remains the leader of the democratic opposition, “but it’s Maduro who rules,” he said said a The world a Latin American diplomat. Then there is the issue of the pandemic and the fact that support for Guaidó outside the country has become increasingly uncertain: “The pandemic has relegated the Venezuelan crisis to the background”, he said. explained Ronal Rodriguez, a Venezuelan scholar, citing among other things the “disengagement of the countries of the region”.
Although Guaidó formally maintains international support, his position has gradually weakened: a few days ago, the president of Paraguay refused the advantageous offer made by an envoy from Guaidó to pay off the debt with the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA because he was not sure he was dealing with the “legitimate creditor”. “The government has won this battle, Guaidó’s international support is not enough to overthrow Maduro and Venezuela is left with an authoritarian government and a fragmented opposition,” he said. summary the political scientist Angel Alvarez.
Finally, the extension of the mandate of the opposition-controlled Assembly is dividing the opposition itself. Several politicians – including Henrique Capriles, another opposition leader, candidate for president in 2012 and 2013 and opposed to the boycott of the December votes – have been critical of the thesis of administrative continuity, “which is not enshrined in the Constitution of the country”. Members of the opposition party Acción Democrática have also openly criticized the establishment of the “delegated commission”.
The Lima Group, a block of American nations critical of the Venezuelan government of Maduro, did not recognize the legitimacy of the new parliament, and the American Secretary of State Michael Pompeo reiterated the disavowal of the legislative elections of December 6 and therefore the block of new parliamentarians who “now occupy the federal legislative building in Caracas”. Pompeo said: “We consider this group illegitimate and will not recognize its pronouncements.”
There is much anticipation as to what the next US president, Joe Biden, who takes office on January 20, will do. “Most of the sanctions put in place by Donald Trump against Maduro’s government will likely be maintained,” Rodriguez explained. But on the one hand Guaidó has openly shown his support for Donald Trump, and on the other, how he has underlined Maduro himself in the last few hours, it is clear that Trump’s policy on Venezuela has been a failure. «A significant part of the opposition has adopted the extremist vision imposed by Washington during the Trump era (…). This era is ending and we will see how this part of the opposition will react ».
Guaidó finally seems to have lost the popular support he enjoyed when he proclaimed himself president in January 2019. Maduro will “use” the restrictive measures linked to the pandemic to stifle any demonstration and many fear that other activists and critics will be arrested in the coming weeks.
According to the Venezuelan organization Criminal Forum, there are 350 people currently in prison for their views. Dozens of opposition politicians, including Leopoldo López, Guaidó’s mentor, have fled the country: others are expected to do so too. On Tuesday, while Guaidó was holding his swearing-in ceremony, they had been outside his home lined up the security forces, who have always been loyal to Maduro.
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