In the north, Russia was indeed pushed back in many places, but in the south a lot of area has been taken, says defense expert Patrick Bolder of the center for strategic studies in The Hague. “If they take Severodonetsk they will move towards Lyman, the Russians are already there and then they have closed off a whole part of the Donbas. That is what the Russians are after.”
Bulk goods through the port
And so Russia is also taking advantage of their victories. The port of Mariupol is one such victory that immediately pays off. “Coal, ore, oil, coal. Such bulk goods are very often transported by ship. So it is of great economic value.”
Life in Severodonetsk is now terrifying. Between the bombs, basic necessities are thought of, as you can see in the video below:
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Russia’s war machine will not immediately run at higher speeds through the port. Bolder: “The supply of, for example, food or fuel now probably went through the Crimea, they had had that part since 2014.”
Kramatorsk
What the Russians are probably doing is looting Ukrainian assets and transporting them through that port. For example, in the Azovstal factory, the place where Ukrainian fighters held out for a long time, there is still something to be done.
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So the Russians are gaining ground, but things are going slower than they had hoped. Leonid Paschnik, the leader of the renegade Ukrainian region of Luhansk, told the Russian state news agency TASS. And if Russia really wants to have the whole of Donbas, they still have a lot to conquer. “For example, Kramatorsk, that’s where the Ukrainian headquarters is. It depends on how many losses the Russians suffer whether they go there too.”
Russians pushed back at Kherson
The fear was also earlier that Russia would push through to Odessa on the south side, eventually closing Ukraine from the sea. Ukraine can then only be supplied by land. “That would have enormous economic consequences,” says Bolder.
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That is not happening for the time being. In fact, in the south near Kherson, the Russians are being pushed back a bit again. “If Ukraine manages to recapture that city, it might hinder the Russian supply from the south to the Donbas,” explains Professor of War Studies Frans Osinga. “And just exerting a lot of pressure can also help. Then Russia may have to send extra units in that direction that could otherwise have fought in the Donbas.”
The real migration to the west has therefore somewhat disappeared, which was also apparent from the words of Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. He said last weekend that the ‘Donbas had the highest priority’. If other parts of Ukraine also wanted to join Russia, they should be able to.
War again in 5 years?
And President Zelensky of Ukraine also makes small concessions, Bolder sees. “First he said: all Russians have to leave Ukraine, now he wants to go back to the situation before February 24.” Then the war with Russia began.
So small concessions, but also a lot of motivation to keep fighting. “Because if Zelensky gives up land now, there is a chance that it will be war again in 5 to 10 years.”
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