In the United States, state authorities rely on a mix of statistical models and a wide range of figures to guide themselves in the midst of the deadly coronavirus emergency and make crucial decisions, such as closing businesses and stocking medical supply inventories.
During a hurricane season, coastal states can rely on the same computational models for warnings about the path of a storm. During the pandemic, there is no consensus to predict the balance or direction of the virus that is plaguing communities across the country.
With little information to agree on, governors and local authorities are basically creating makeshift sources of information with their own officials and universities.
Models have caused conflicts in various places.
Some 75 protesters on Thursday demanded that Ohio Governor Mike DeWine reopen businesses and questioned the models his health director used to maintain the order to stay home across the state. Detractors have lashed out at an Iowa Department of Health matrix as arbitrary and say it is used by the governor to support her decision not to issue an order to stay home.
The federal government and many states rely on a University of Washington model that is closest to a benchmark, but that is so imprecise that the last projection of the number of deaths had a range of more than 100,000. In the capital, health officials took the unusual step of publicly announcing that they did not trust that model and adopted much more fatalistic predictions from a model created by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania.
Some states, including Alaska, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Louisiana, are incorporating the work of local researchers and other experts to fine-tune their own models.
State officials have cited the more pessimistic forecasts of issuing orders to stay home. Others have used more optimistic figures to justify their calls to ease restrictions.
“We now know that many models being used are not accurate,” said Missouri Governor Mike Parso, explaining why he decided to wait until Monday to issue the confinement decree in his state.
In most people, the new coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms that disappear in two to three weeks. In some people, especially older adults and those with underlying health conditions, it can lead to more serious illnesses, such as pneumonia, and even death.
The reelection of the president Donald trump It could depend on your handling of the crisis and the model the White House depends on for your forecasts will be a problem if it is inaccurate.
Unlike the National Hurricane Center, the federal government does not have a national information office that offers models to tackle the virus.. The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has not publicly released a model of its own regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The President Trump administration usually adopts the University of Washington model, but the CDC has not identified a consensus regarding the models to be used by state authorities.
Natalie Dean, assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida School of Medicine, has identified over-reliance on models and confusion about the role they should play in responding to a pandemic. He said some of the most valuable information may be anecdotal, obtained from people working on the front lines against the pandemic.
“The models must have income parameters. One needs to consider many assumptions about what he thinks is going to happen and there is still much that we do not know. We must attend to the figures with skepticism,” said Dean, who works with other experts in vaccine strategies. for COVID-19.
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