par Andrei Martyanov
There are some problems with basic arithmetic – you know, basic counting – with a lot of American brass top.
« US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday praised Russia’s military and armaments, but added, however, that this military might did not allow Moscow to achieve victory in the conflict in Ukraine. “You know, the Russians have a huge army and impressive weapons,” but that “hasn’t helped them prevail in a campaign of conquest and cruelty,” said Austin, who spoke at the International Forum on Saturday. Halifax, Canada. According to the official, “it’s the cause that counts”, as well as “who fights for it”. The defense secretary then praised President Joe Biden for rallying “nations of goodwill” against Russia’s attempts to “forcibly redraw borders.” Austin also said the US would stand with Ukraine as long as the conflict lasts, insisting that the outcome of the conflict “will determine the course of global security in this young century”. He added, however, that NATO would not be dragged into what he described as the “worst security crisis ever [européenne] since the end of World War II,” unless Moscow attacks one of its member states. »
But then again, there’s a school of thought, and I’m serious, that sees Vietnam and even Afghanistan as American victories. But the fact that Russia’s “massive military forces” have not even engaged in Ukraine is not taken into consideration by the high political level of the United States, nor is the fact that Russian forces are outnumbered since the beginning of the operation special military. Not to mention that Russia has been “short” of missiles, ammunition, tanks, etc., continuously since March.
Of course, we all understand that all these grandiose statements of the West are just smoke and mirrors showing a complete loss of plot, since all Western “plans” for the military and economic defeat of Russia failed precisely because of the inability of the West “planners” to count, calculate and learn. So now Austin, along with other top US officials, must somehow save face by the following means:
1. Reaffirm their desire to avoid direct conflict with Russia;
2. At the same time, continue to support their beloved Nazis in Kiev.
3. Somehow deal with the ongoing economic calamity. Somehow they don’t know how.
Dmitry Medvedev na don’t mince words here :
« Everyone is tired of the Kiev regime. Especially the neurotic Zelensky, who continues to stir up tension, whining and extorting more and more money and weapons. [Il se comporte comme un enfant hystérique ayant des problèmes de développement », a déclaré Medvedev. La lassitude à l’égard de Kiev et de ses actions incite l’Occident collectif à « pousser » l’Ukraine à entamer des pourparlers avec la Russie, a poursuivi le chef adjoint du Conseil de sécurité de la nation. « Les États-Unis, l’OTAN et l’Union européenne ne veulent pas d’une rupture complète avec la Russie, ce qui risquerait de provoquer une troisième guerre mondiale. D’où les fréquentes tentatives pour contenir Kiev et la ramener à la raison, pour la pousser à négocier », écrit Medvedev. En refusant de parler avec la Russie, Zelensky poursuit en fait des objectifs beaucoup plus banals et égoïstes, a suggéré Medvedev. Il a ajouté que « si [Zelensky] does not accept the reality of the collapse of Ukraine, there is no point in sitting down at the table [de négociation]. And if he accepts it, he will be eliminated by his own nationalists, linked to the high ranks of the army. ».
It’s a no-brainer, but if not a complete split, something very close has already happened between Russia and the West combined. While the “status” of the United States as an existential enemy of Russia has been clear since the end of WWII, this is a new paradigm for, for example, France and Germany, which are viewed by Russians as existential enemies of Russia people, and this is the only way the EU and its two largest constituents MUST be seen and treated. In other words, Russia has to navigate between Scylla and Harybdis so that Europe is more or less stable, making sure that France and Germany (and of course the UK) are reduced to mere regional military powers incapable of generating any credible threat to the Russia. The Russian-American dialogues are another matter: they concern the relationships between two main actors, while the little dogs must be removed from the room.
Pepe wrote an excellent article on this topic:
« It is safe to say that the G20 may have sunk on a hopeless path to insignificance. Even before the current flurry of Southeast Asian summits — in Phnom Penh, Bali and Bangkok — Lavrov had already signaled what would come next, saying “more than a dozen countries” had applied to join. , South Africa). Iran, Argentina and Algeria have officially applied: Iran, along with Russia, India and China, is already part of the Eurasian Quad that really matters. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Afghanistan are extremely interested in becoming members. Indonesia has just submitted its bid to Bali. And then there’s the next wave: Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand (which could apply this weekend in Bangkok), Nigeria, Senegal and Nicaragua. Basically, all these countries sent their finance ministers in May for a dialogue on BRICS expansion. A brief but serious assessment of the candidates reveals a surprising unity in diversity. Lavrov himself noted that it will take time for the current five BRICS to analyze the immense geopolitical and geoeconomic implications of expanding to virtually the size of the G20 – and without the collective West.. »
My only disagreement with Pepe’s otherwise superb article is the use of an insignificant measure of GDP. US GDP is NOT $23 trillion, it never was, it is at best, in real terms, half that amount. Not to mention the ever-critical question of the structure of the national economy. Tangible elements far more important than abstract dollar figures define the size and complexity of any economy, the foundations of which are natural and human resources and industrial capacity, or the physical economy.
Here, again, are some critical metrics that define the current state of affairs. They have changed insignificantly in 2022, except, as you may have guessed, for Europe.
This is even more important:
If you’re in the top 5-6 of this table, you’ll have industrial development, advanced aerospace programs, advanced militaries, and a decent standard of living. Do you see a European country in this painting? Here you are. So wait for the Final Annual Reports (12MB) from industries from steel to energy to machinery in January 2023 and you’ll see this fun dynamic for yourself.
source : Memory of the future
Translation of international networks
