The political situation in the country is becoming more dynamic. Slavi Trifonov shifted the layers, announcing that he was removing his ITN party from the ruling coalition. After this move, countless analyzes, comments and forecasts were launched about what will happen to the government in our country.
On all hot political topics, the BLIC agency sought expert comment from the co-founder of the Trend sociological agency, Evelina Slavkova.
We are getting closer to the option of early elections, says Evelina Slavkova
– How would you comment on Slavi Trifonov’s decision to leave the ruling coalition and withdraw all ITN ministers?
– There is no special surprise in the events that took place in recent days. Perhaps the expectation was that it would not happen at this very moment, but it was clear to everyone that there could be a rift in this coalition. The rift was at the foundation of this coalition of so many different political parties and formations.
Conflict points that would lead to tensions were also visible at the beginning, and one such topic is the lifting of the veto for Northern Macedonia, for example. There were two questions at the beginning – who will throw the towel first and what will be the topic that will lead to this situation.
Slavi Trifonov broke up the coalition, withdrew all ministers of ITN BLIC TV
– What are the options for power without a showman and a politician?
– The situation is more than complicated and in the coming days and weeks we will see the outcome of this situation. The idea of minority management in this dynamic crisis situation is more than exotic. The question is who will vote for the new ministers? Which political force will support the new candidacies or play with the quorum?
On the other hand, which political formations want to govern in times of crisis, when very unpopular political decisions have to be made. I think that we are getting closer to the option of early elections, but we should not completely rule out an attempt to form an expert government. There are several options and the situation is still difficult to determine.
– Will the ITN party split after this move of its leader or will it remain united?
– Hypotheses have been born about the split of the ITN, but there are still no visible signals in this direction. Rather, I believe that the group will remain united. It is clear that even if this government continues its life for a while, at some point early elections will be held and this fact will also influence the decisions of the ITN deputies.
The ITN group will remain united after leaving the coalition, the sociologist said.
– If the elections were today, what will be the ranking and what kind of parliament will we have? Which political formation would lose the most compared to the last vote and which one will pull headlong in the race?
– There will be no dramatic change in the composition of a future National Assembly from what we have at the moment. There will certainly be a rearrangement. There is also a possibility that Stefan Yanev’s party will be added to the future composition, but this depends on many circumstances.
The big question, which is even more difficult to solve, is what happens after a possible election. Which political formations will form a cabinet? I have no way that the parties in this coalition will not lose any support in the elections.
Even for the PP, it is better to go to the polls now, until the collapse in support becomes completely irreversible. Revival, on the other hand, with the accumulated political dividends and the fact that they often find themselves in the political arena on certain topics, can add electoral support. It is only with the tools of sociology that we will measure the development of the situation.
– What is the most likely date for early elections?
– If we agree that this is the way to go, then autumn is the most likely time for early elections.
Purely constitutionally, after the resignation of a government, its adoption, roulette is played by giving a mandate to the first two political formations to form a cabinet and if it does not materialize, a third term is given to a political party elected by the president. After that, elections for MPs are scheduled within 60 days.
On this account, if we assume that in the coming weeks we will embark on the path of early elections, then in the fall we must reappear in the ballot box.
Extraordinary! Mass fight in the National Assembly VIDEO
– How would you comment on the scandal in the National Assembly, in which MPs almost got into a fight? This happened on June 1 in front of 50 children who were special guests in parliament.
– “Inadmissible” is the first thought that came to my mind when I read about this situation. But coming to these conflicts is not a big surprise in the context of the high levels of tension seen in the House.
However, the political class must not forget that everything they do is visible and they must be an example to society and young people, and not to reduce political communication to neighborhood quarrels.
– Why was the relationship between the Prime Minister and the President strained and is there a solution?
– The President gave a flying start to Kiril Petkov and Asen Vassilev, from which they took full advantage. I do not see much surprise in the strain on relations between them for a number of reasons. First, these conflicts between the president and the executive are not unexpected.
Secondly, after the PP came to power, many of Radev’s people, who took positions as a result of the two cabinets last year, were fired. On the other hand, Radev very quickly decided to distance himself from this coalition, and especially from Kiril Petkov and Asen Vassilev, so as not to accumulate on his back the negatives that they very quickly began to collect.
Rewriting this office of the president is something more than clear that he does not want. These are just some of the details that have strained these relationships.
Interview with Yavor BELCHEV, BLITZ
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