News of the fall of the ruble in early March spurred demand for new cars, so the Russians tried to keep their ruble savings. The situation unfolded according to the patterns of 2014, when, with similar volatilitycourseruble motorists throughout the year invested rapidly depreciating national currency in new cars.
But the rush demand flared up this time already during March passed the peak and sharply declined. This was reported to Gazeta.Ru by several dealers at once, and also confirmed by some automakers. So, according to the director of the department for working with key clients of AvtoSpetsTsentr Group of Companies Alexander Zakharov, already this week, citizens have lost an active interest in buying cars. And even in this situation, due to the problems of car factories with the supply of Chinese components, there is a risk of a shortage for some cars.
“There is already no rush among customers, demand has not subsided, and in the near future we expect a reduction in sales,” Alexander Zakharov from AvtoSpetsTsentra told Gazeta.ru. “There is no global shortage of cars, but due to the downtime of the plants, certain interruptions in the supply of cars are possible soon.”
According to him, almost all car manufacturers have already approved new “price lists”, and if the US dollar continues to rise, then car prices will also rise.
AutoSpecCenter expects that by the end of the year, sales decline in the positive scenario will be 12%, in the negative scenario – up to 30%.
The Avilon group of companies also notes that last week the currency jumps provoked a high demand for cars by both mass and premium brands, but now sales have again returned to their previous dynamics.
“The surge of customer interest is gradually returning to the usual level, but there are still buyers who want to buy a car profitably now, suggesting a price increase,” said Maxim Vasiliev, head of the Volkswagen dealership sales group at Avilon Group of Companies. – We expect a gradual return of traffic to the working rhythm, which was maintained in dealerships outside the hype. Car dealers can return to the level of consumer interest and demand that was at the beginning of this year, which was not bad, because the year began positively, ”he hopes.
Quarantined Client
Traffic at car dealerships fell by 40% in March, the Russian company Sollers (producing UAZ cars and the Ford commercial line) told Gazeta.ru. However, the outbreak of coronavirus and the self-isolation of many customers are to blame for this, the company believes.
“We see the risks of suspension of production due to a sharp drop in demand for cars – first of all, from individuals,” the press service of Sollers told Gazeta.ru. – Customer traffic to car dealerships in Moscow and St. Petersburg has already fallen by 40% and will continue to decline in the regions if the epidemiological situation develops according to a negative scenario. A sharp drop in demand may result in a lack of capacity utilization and, as a result, a suspension or reduction in production volumes, ”the company noted.
A representative of another car company and a source in the dealer community unofficially reported a decrease in customer activity. Earlier, AvtoVAZ and Renault warned of higher prices for their products.
The market is steadily sick
If current negative trends continue, the new car market in 2020 expects a drop in sales of at least 15-20%, predicts the analytical agency Avtostat.
“There are several reasons for the future drop in sales: a weakened ruble and rising prices, and car factories are expected to stop starting in May and beyond due to a lack of supply of auto components from the outbreak of the coronavirus of the Chinese province of Hubei (one of the auto parts centers in China is“ Gazeta.ru ”), – Director of the Avtosat analytical agency Sergey Tselikov told Gazeta.Ru his forecast. “If everything that we observe in the economy is not stabilizing now before the May holidays, then many enterprises will be dismissed,” he said.
In this case, for a long time people will have no time for cars at all, the expert believes. According to his forecasts, the market for new cars may be reduced to a million units by the end of 2020 (1.76 million cars were sold in 2019 – Gazeta.ru). New cars on average in price will grow by 10-15%, according to Autostat.
According to Tselikov, at the end of March, due to rush demand, the car market will become a plus, dealers will transfer part of the results of these sales to the distributor in April, which can also bring the monthly figure to a positive result. But already in May 2020, Avtostat expects a serious decline in sales.
A similar opinion is shared by an independent automotive industry consultant Sergei Burgazliev.
“Until the end of the year, the ruble will definitely not regain its position; there are no fundamental factors for this. As we were dependent on hydrocarbon prices, we remain. Moreover, the situation with components from China remains difficult, we finally saw how much we depend on imports of automotive components. According to preliminary estimates, the market for new cars may lose 15-20% by the end of the year. This clearly demonstrates that our market is actually unnatural – subsidized. So, he cannot live without state support, ”said Burgazliev.
According to the source Gazeta.Ru, for car dealers this year will be especially difficult. The worst thing for them is not so much a drop in sales as an outflow of customers to alternative service stations due to an increase in the cost of original dealer parts by no less than 20%.
“There is no reason why completely imported spare parts purchased for foreign currency would not have risen in price by the exchange rate difference before and after the fall of the ruble,” said Burgazliev. – Many customers will leave official service, and dealers, accordingly, will begin a series of reductions and bankruptcies.
Or dealers retrain from official service to simple car services, the expert said.
If the government does not want to see such a situation, then at least by May it is necessary to develop appropriate support measures for both the car market and car manufacturers, he concluded.
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