Marine Le Pen in an interview
The far-right leader of the Rassemblement National has a realistic chance of being France’s next president.
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(Photo: Reuters)
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Pollsters see a repeat of the duel between Macron and Le Pen as the most likely result of Sunday’s first round of voting. A narrower result than five years ago is expected in the runoff election on April 24th. In some polls on the possible second-round duel, Macron was only four to five percentage points ahead of Le Pen.
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“There was a little wake-up call now that Macron has a very small lead. Traders will brace themselves for the risk of a narrower victory or even defeat for Macron,” said Mohit Kumar, investment strategist at investment bank Jefferies. A surprise victory for the right-wing populist is possible, said Marco Bonaviri, head of the foreign exchange department and senior portfolio manager at Reyl & Cie.
The impact of a Le Pen election could be significant as the market is currently not pricing in that outcome. “We could see the euro depreciate across the board, euro-periphery government bond spreads widen, and euro-zone stocks underperform relative to US stocks.”
More on this: Macron under pressure: That’s why a victory for right-wing populist Le Pen is conceivable
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