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February 24 Russia invaded Ukraine on a full scale. In a month, Russia has become the largest sanctioned state in the world, having received more than six thousand sanctions and has become a world exile. The aggressor country was shamefully expelled from the Council of Europe. And this is just the beginning, politicians say, because the pay for war crimes will be much higher.
For a month now, Ukraine has been courageously holding back and heroically resisting a much larger enemy – Putin’s blitzkrieg to seize Ukraine failed in a few days, and further actions of the invaders are unlikely to be successful. Instead of this The Russian Federation began the terror of the civilian population, the invaders are barbarously destroying our Motherland, inflicting rocket attacks on residential buildings, schools and hospitals, keeping entire cities under siege. At the same time, Moscow lies to the whole world about the so-called “special operation” and the destruction of “military facilities.”
On the one hand, the Russian invasion, in the words of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, “is essentially stalled” has so far failed to achieve any of President Vladimir Putin’s main goals. But on the other hand, having lost thousands of his military, Putin may decide to intensify the bombing that has already led to the destruction of part of Ukraine. What do Western intelligence and the military say about the development of the war in Ukraine, collected TSN.ua.
War development
Despite the Russian economy shaking under the weight of Western sanctions, Putin shows no signs of backing down and makes his demands. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators say they are still far from developing a forward-looking deal that Putin and Zelensky could discuss at their upcoming meeting.
At the same time, British intelligence reported that, according to them, the Russian troops sent by the dictator Putin to fight against Ukraine, almost certainly suffered thousands of casualties during the failed attack. Due to heavy losses, Russia is mobilizing its own and foreign mercenaries, but it is not clear how they will integrate into the Russian army.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia began mobilize those individuals who cannot repay loans and do not pay alimony. Accordingly, debtors are offered the release of all credit obligations in the event of signing a contract with the Russian army. In particular, such proposals began to spread on the territory of Tatarstan, in Pyatigorsk, Rostov-on-Don and the North Caucasus.
In Britain, they say that Russian troops are unsuccessfully trying to bypass Nikolaev in the direction of Odessa. Over the past week, according to British intelligence, these forces have made little progress.
As for Kyiv, although the offensive of the Russian army to the north-east of the capital stopped, according to British intelligence, Russian troops try to take the city again in the coming weeks. After all, Kyiv remains the main military goal of Russia.
According to British intelligence, Russian troops in Ukraine are now regrouping, to continue offensive operations.
Pentagon sources say that the Russian military is sent to Kyiv in several directions, attempting to encircle the city, but their forces were stalled for several days partly due to stiff resistance from Ukrainian troops. Thus, a senior official from the US Department of Defense stated that Russian troops were driven back to a distance of about 55 km east of Kyiv during March 22.
The US Department of Defense also noted that Russian troops, who stopped 12-15 kilometers north of Kyiv “dig in” and equip defensive positions.
The Pentagon official also said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to push back part of the Russian troops near the city of Chernihiv. In this context, he noted that Russia seems to be “beginning to give priority” to military operations in the Donbass – especially in the Lugansk region.
One of the biggest questions raised over the war is whether Russia’s most powerful ally will come to Putin’s aid. US officials said Russia had turned to China for military and economic support. US President Joe Biden has warned Chinese leader Xi Jinping that there will be consequences for his support for Putin, though the administration did not elaborate on what he was talking about.
Many experts doubt that China will become the main party to the conflict. There are limits to how much China can help Russia economically, the observer explained NY Times Paul Krugman. And by providing military support to Russia, China could risk alienating other world powers with which it does business.
China is now maintaining neutrality, rejecting calls to condemn the Russian attack and promising to de-escalate the conflict.
Position and latest statements of NATO
Ukraine, which has been told for years about the open doors of the Alliance, has been asking for several weeks in a row, if not to close the sky, then at least to provide air defense systems to combat Russian aircraft. Meanwhile, NATO openly states that it has no plans to send its troops to Ukraine, but promises to provide weapons.
Read also: Seeks to break the world order: Zelensky told why Putin went to war in Ukraine
When asked what NATO would do if Russia used chemical weapons in Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg replied: “Any use of chemical weapons will completely change the nature of the conflict and will have far-reaching consequences.”
Meanwhile, the NATO representative predictsthat the losses of the Russian army in Ukraine in killed can range from 7 to 15 thousand people, and the total losses, taking into account the wounded, missing and prisoners, can be up to 40 thousand.
Putin’s future
How writes a former CIA operations officer who spent 34 years in the secret service of the Central Intelligence Agency and now teaches intelligence studies, Putin undermined in a few weeks what Russia had been building for almost 30 years. Until a few weeks ago, Russians were vacationing abroad and buying imported cars and other luxury items. Today, Russians are lucky if they can get their money (what was left of them after the collapse of the ruble) and keep their jobs. Soon it will be difficult for them to get food. Therefore, according to the ex-CIA officer, the more Putin “tightens the security screws and closes the Russian window to the world, the more likely it is that those on whom he depends will turn against him.”
The former intelligence officer predicts that the revival of the Soviet empire, as Putin wants it, will provoke resistance from a patriotic generation that will fight for freedom. Besides, the obsessive desire of the head of the Kremlin, according to the former CIA operational officer, will lead to the death of Putin.
But Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia and a well-known commentator on the war, expressed the consensus opinion:
“Putin has no ending. Even if he takes Kyiv, then what? Ukrainians will never obey him. Never. IN clearly demonstrated to the country that they will not surrender,” wrote is he.
Journalist The New Yorker warned that Moldova, Georgia, the Baltic countries, Poland are under the threat of Putin. But such an attack on other states could threaten a direct confrontation with NATO.
“The more the fighting moves west, the more likely it is that a misguided missile will hit NATO territory or that the Russians will destroy a NATO aircraft,” Carol Landry of The Times wrote.
Russian missiles, by the way, have already fallen close to Polish-Ukrainian border in the Lviv region. According to US President Joe Biden, an attack on NATO territory would mean the beginning of a “Third World War.”
Recall that as of March 24, the general combat losses among the personnel of the invaders amounted to about 15.8 thousand people.
