Conflicting interests
The situation in Idlib shows that Putin and Erdogan have very conflicting interests in Syria. The Syrian army of Assad wants to get full control of Idlib. Erdogan wants to keep Assad away from the area, so that no more refugees come to Turkey. He therefore supports the rebels in Idlib who are fighting against Assad.
In the meantime, Russia supports Assad. Mainly to remain an important player in the region and on the world stage. But Russia is being put under pressure by both parties. What now?
Way out
According to correspondent Geert Groot Koerkamp, today’s main goal is to do everything in its power to prevent the situation in Idlib from getting out of hand. Russia doesn’t feel like it, he says. “If an armed attack were to take place from Russia, it would mean a conflict with a NATO country. Russia does not want to have all NATO countries against it.”
“Turkey also does not want any escalation,” says geopolitical analyst Isa Yusibov. “Turkey shot down a Russian fighter plane in 2015 and then received huge sanctions from Russia, including the export of fruit and vegetables and tourism. That was a huge blow.” According to Yusibov, economic dependence is so great that Turkey does not want to risk it again.
“In addition,” says Groot Koerkamp, ”billions of projects are currently being set up between Russia and Turkey. Such as a gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey and a nuclear power plant that Russia is going to build in Turkey.”
According to both Groot Koerkamp and Yusibov, it means that both presidents do not consider the province of Idlib worth putting their alliance at stake.
Correspondent Lucas Waagmeester was in Idlib this week. This is what he found there:
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