Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that the Indonesian economy during the first quarter of this year still contracted by 0.74% on an annual basis. Meanwhile, on a quarterly basis, RI’s GDP is still minus 0.96%.
The reason is that Indonesians are still holding back on spending, as can be seen from the negative home consumption date of 2.23%. Meanwhile, investment or Gross Fixed Investment (PMTB) still contracted 0.23% yoy (year on year).
PMTB is expenditure for capital goods that have a service life of more than one year and are not consumer goods. With this data on economic growth correction, Indonesia’s GDP contraction even occurs for four consecutive quarters. This means that Indonesia is trapped in the ‘abyss’ of economic recession for one year.
Head of Market Research of PT Infovesta Utama, Wawan Hendrayana, assessed that market players had predicted negative economic growth in the first quarter of this year, so this is what made it difficult for the JCI to rise above the new upper limit level since last February.
This condition has made many investment management companies plan to reshuffle their investment strategies by relying on projected growth in the second and third quarters of this year, which are believed to be better.
“Negative economic growth has been predicted and the JCI has been corrected since February, so that the current JCI is already in place price in [diantisipasi lebih dulu], “said Wawan, when contacted CNBC Indonesia, Wednesday (5/5/2021).
Furthermore, Wawan said, economic data after Lebaran would be the main indicator for investment manager companies (MI) in determining their investment strategy.
“Investment managers will see more projections in Q2 and Q3. Economic data after Eid will be an indicator,” said Wawan.
Meanwhile, Director of PT Panin Asset Management, Rudiyanto previously said that in the midst of the lack of transaction conditions, Panin Asset Management shopped on stocks with good fundamentals, such as stocks in the financial, telecommunications and consumer sectors.
Several listed companies in this sector have reported good prospects for financial performance. Meanwhile, the construction sector tends to be avoided because of the large debt ratio.
“This decline is used as a momentum to buy shares at a lower price,” he said.
On a separate occasion, Head of Research PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Suria Dharma said the Covid-19 pandemic had an impact not only on the economy but also on the stock market. This can be seen from the behavior of foreign investors who are tug of war into the stock market.
According to him, during the Covid-19 pandemic many investors, especially foreign investors, opted out of the Indonesian stock market. This condition made the JCI to fall deeply in the last year.
“Actually, the foreign portion could be bigger, but it is intended to re-enter [ke pasar saham] still on hold, let alone a case [Covid-19] in India it will increase, will it happen in Indonesia and hopefully not, but that is what investors are worried about, “he said in the program investment.
At present, although there has been an apparent economic recovery and mass vaccinations have been carried out in the country, foreign investors have not fully returned to the Indonesian stock market. Because, there is concern about a new spike in Covid-19 cases [dari India] into consideration.
“This is what makes investors still waiting or more careful the term,” he explained.
In yesterday’s trading, JCI closed up 0.20% at 5,975, failing to break the psychological level of 6,000. The transaction value was also recorded at only Rp. 9.22 trillion, far from the position last February when daily transactions were often above Rp. 18-20 trillion.
The past month is accumulative, foreign net sell (net sales) Rp. 1.57 trillion in the regular market, and year to date or the current year foreign entry (net buy) of Rp 1.26 trillion.
Starting April, the JCI has indeed sloped below 6,000, even though in January it had reached its highest level of 6,435, and in March it again touched the level of 6,339. However, from April to early May, the benchmark index for the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has continued to decline.
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