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Middle East War and Economic Outlook: Rising Inflation, Crude Oil Prices, and Interest Rates

The new Middle East war was the sad topic of the week under review, a major terrorist attack by Hamas against the country of Israel. The fear of an intensification of the war is growing. The Israeli army announced massive retaliation.

In September 2023 they are Consumer prices in the USA increased by 3.7 percent compared to the same month last year in 2022. Compared to August, the inflation rate in the USA remained unchanged (3.6 percent). It remains uncertain whether the upward trend in US key interest rates has come to an end. One Continuation of the tight monetary policy probably remains. The Inflation is not yet defeated.

From the beginning of July to mid-August they reached Crude oil price increases around 14 percent as a result of supply cuts by the supplying countries, and in the last few days also because of the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

A strong one Increase in long-term interest rates in recent weeks has surprised many investors. Bond market volatility has increased. The yield on ten-year US government bonds broke the 5 percent mark a few days ago; in Germany it was 3 percent.

Company news

After a disappointing start to the stock market the previous week, the newly placed shares of Sandoz recovered from CHF 23 to almost 28.

The pharmaceutical manufacturer Santhera is on the verge of a breakthrough with a new product called Vamorolone. The European medicines authorities have made a positive recommendation for the treatment of muscular dystrophy.

Die UBS is partially withdrawing from the USA and is largely giving up issuing municipal bonds.

The company specializing in sheet metal processing machines Bystronic recorded 4.4 percent less sales and again fewer orders in the months January to September.

The train builder Stadler Rail has been contracted by California to supply four hydrogen-powered trains. The US federal state and the people of Eastern Switzerland signed the contract on October 12th. According to Stadler, there is the possibility of delivering up to 25 additional identical trains to California.

Givaudan is confident. The flavor and fragrance manufacturer is increasing its organic sales growth, but continues to suffer from the strong Swiss franc. Sales fall by 3.5 percent from January to September.

The Zug Group Bossard feels the economic headwind. At the industrial supplier in fastening technology, sales fell by around 14 percent compared to the third quarter of 2022.

Aluflexpack lowers the outlook, the packaging specialist is recording weaker demand in Europe.

Wanderlust: The airport Zurich In September, it practically reached the frequencies of the pre-pandemic period. A total of 2.8 million passengers traveled via Kloten. That is 21 percent more than in the same month last year.

U-Blox with fewer sales: At the chip and semiconductor manufacturer, sales fell by 8 percent between January and September. However, the outlook for the full year remains unchanged.

Renaming the company from Dufry in Sometimes: The company announced the name change last week. The name is intended to represent the combination of Dufry and the newly acquired Italian company Autogrill.

The Dorma Kaba-Saving program affects 183 jobs in Switzerland. The group active in security technology has announced a reorganization. Nevertheless, there are no closures of locations or production workshops.

Asmallworld A capital increase is starting, according to a statement from the social network, a total of around 2.74 million new shares are to be placed.


The Environment for stocks has deteriorated, through wars in Ukraine, now also in the Middle East, and the Oil prices have increased. But the Stock markets have held up surprisingly well. A boycott against the Western world by the oil-producing countries is not to be expected, as was the case fifty years ago (1973), and there are also countries around the world Lager full. Also at natural gas In terms of shortages, things are looking better than a year ago. The Swiss franc (safe haven) did not experience a noticeable rise this time as before.

Further economic forecasts until the end of the year remain difficult, especially Interest rate outlook. The fight against the Inflation has not yet been won. One hard landing However, it is unlikely from today’s perspective. The Energy prices however, we remain concerned. The Bonds become more interesting again. Also those Banks earn more money through higher interest rates. Tourism, hospitality and travel have the good Vor-Corona-Level reached again.

2023-10-14 20:08:02
#Stock #market #fears #major #war #Middle #East

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