Macron at 8 p.m. this Monday evening, towards total containment?

COVID-19. A defense council is to be held this Monday at noon at the Elysée Palace while the spread of the coronavirus is accelerating in France. Are we headed for a general containment, announced for several hours by many rumors but denied so far by the executive? We take stock of the latest news live.

Alarming messages have multiplied in recent hours. This Monday, March 16, health director Jérôme Salomon spoke at the microphone of France Inter a situation that “deteriorates very quickly” with a number of cases “which doubles every three days”. Sunday, Jean-Michel Blanquer, the Minister of National Education, had admitted on Franceinfo that the epidemic was going to “probably” affect half of the French. With more than 5,400 cases listed Sunday in the balance sheet of Public Health France, France is far from the Italian situation but the evolution raises fears of an outbreak of cases with, as a consequence, a congestion of hospitals. Above all, the Italian curve remains close. On March 7, Italy recorded a similar number of cases: 5883. This total has since exploded to reach 24,000 cases identified on Sunday March 15. Specialists alert in addition to an under-evaluation of cases with undoubtedly unidentified patients, with little or no symptoms (healthy carriers) but which can prove to be very contagious for those around them.

It was in this context that Le Monde was able to obtain confidential models on Sunday, produced by the group of scientists who advise the Elysée. These quantify in several hundreds of thousands of dead the victims of the coronavirus in France if nothing was done. “In the absence of any preventive or containment measure,” the Covid-19 epidemic could cause 300,000 to 500,000 deaths. Be careful however: as alarmist as they are, these models are purely theoretical and above all show the destructive potential of the virus. “This scenario was calculated using the highest possible transmissibility and mortality assumptions, and this in the absence of the radical measures of prevention and social isolation which have just been taken,” the newspaper said.

It’s a very special week that opens in France this Monday. While insistent rumors on the web and relayed by several press articles this morning indicate a possible containment which could be unveiled and activated earlier this week by the government, first measures are put in place on Monday. As announced by Emmanuel Macron on Thursday, this Monday, March 16 marks the first day of closure of crèches and educational establishments (schools, colleges, high schools or even universities), forcing many parents to organize childcare. Saturday, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe added that of non-essential businesses (except public services, food businesses or even tobacco shops) in order to reduce social interactions and the spread of the virus. Sunday, the Minister of Transport Elisabeth Borne unveiled the transport plan put in place on Monday March 16. It invites the French to “limit their trips” and announces a reduced transport offer in the coming days on long distance links without “sudden and complete stop”. This Monday, there will be 7 TGV out of 10 according to forecasts by the SNCF. An offer that will be gradually reduced to arrive at 1 train out of 2 during the week. Air links will be reduced. The airports will remain open despite the closure of some terminals in Paris. Jean-Baptiste Djebbari clarified that the RER A and B traffic will be normal as well as the bus and the tram. 80% of traffic will be provided in the metro.

This is the rumor that circulated on many social networks Sunday evening with its share of information, fake news or channels characteristic of this kind of anxiety-provoking situation. Each then has a relative, a friend, a relative of a friend or more to “legitimize” this panic: France would be placed in confinement in the coming days. This rumor was effectively relayed by several press articles this Sunday evening, in particular in the columns of the JDD or the Parisian this Monday morning which reports possible meetings at the highest summit of the State and drastic solutions to succeed in curbing the spread of the virus, the measures announced in recent days have not convinced the French to limit their trips this weekend. A defense council must be held at midday at the Elysée. Will it endorse containment measures and which: a curfew, total confinement in certain territories such as Ile de France or Grand Est? There are many questions. Monday morning, guest of France Inter, the government spokeswoman Sibeth Ndiaye spoke about this potential decree so often mentioned Sunday evening a “fake news”. At the same time, health specialists are calling on the authorities to decide quickly and establish confinement close to that implemented in Italy, in particular in Codogno. This Monday morning, Jérôme Salomon rightly mentioned the Italian city, emphasizing on the antenna of France Inter: “There is a positive sign this morning, in Italy, in Codogno (epicenter of the Italian epidemic), it works”.

The Public Health France site published Sunday evening an updated assessment of the coronavirus epidemic, counting 127 dead, an assessment heavier than that unveiled by the Minister of Health himself Olivier Véran who mentioned 120 deaths at the beginning of the evening, that is to say an increase in the number of 29 deaths over the last 24 hours. For several days, several doctors and epidemiologists have been informing that severe forms of the virus are observed in several age groups from 30 years and sometimes on patients without any health problem. This is the case of the president of the Grand Est region, an emergency doctor by profession at the Mulhouse hospital who sounded the alarm on Sunday evening March 15. “You know, we have been in the eye of the storm since March 1,” he explained to Le Figaro “This is where we saw things happen. Outside of Alsace, I think the French do not not yet understand what this health crisis means. It’s terrible. Young people who must be intubated urgently, elderly people swept away in a few hours, medical teams who reach full saturation after 15 days of mobilization, weeping people, national plans, fear for oneself and for those close to you … When you’re inside, things are extremely complicated. “

Communicated Sunday evening by Olivier Véran on France 2, the latest assessment of the coronavirus amounted to 5400 cases, 900 cases more than the day before. It would be exactly 5,423 cases according to Santé Publique France. To date, 127 people have died and 400 others are still in serious condition, notably in the intensive care unit. The Minister of Health Olivier Véran confirmed that the spread of the virus had accelerated on the territory. “We are here in a context of serious gravity with 400 people in intensive care. We are all actors, the outing that we are going to cancel, the evening that we are not going to do, all of this is crucial to protect the health of the French”, he said Sunday evening on France 2.

The number of cases of coronavirus in the country, communicated each evening of the week by the Director General of Health, also very incomplete. While in China screening tests are carried out systematically, as soon as the symptoms observed, they are not automatically carried out in France. “The test is carried out only in the event of suspicion of the disease, validated by the Samu and by a referent infectiologist”, indicates the government. Many patients whose health is not seriously affected are often sent home after a simple consultation or teleconsultation. This means that an unknown number of cases of coronavirus are not counted in the official reports and that patients could carry the virus without knowing it.

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