The pessimistic scenario forecasts a second wave of the pandemic and the return of restrictions that would slow the recovery with a drop in working hours of 11.9%. Ph. Reuters
According to the ILO Observatory, “The Covid-19 and the world of work”, the number of hours worked worldwide in the second quarter of 2020 fell by 14%, or 400 million full-time jobs. This percentage constitutes a clear deterioration compared to the estimates of the previous Observatory of May 27 which forecast a decrease of 10.7%.
“Although countries are at different stages of the pandemic and much has already been done, we must redouble our efforts if we are to come out of this crisis in better shape than when it started,” said the Director General of the International Labor Organization (ILO), Guy Ryder. According to the ILO Observatory “The Covid-19 and the world of work”, the number of hours worked worldwide in the second quarter of 2020 fell by 14%, or 400 million full-time jobs. This percentage constitutes a clear deterioration compared to the estimates of the previous Observatory of May 27 which forecast a decrease of 10.7%. These new figures reflect a worsening situation in many regions in recent weeks, especially in developing economies.
At the regional level, the loss of working hours during the second quarter of 2020 was 18.3% in the Americas, 13.9% in Europe and Central Asia, 13.5% in Asia and the Pacific, 13 , 2% in the Arab States and 12.1% in Africa. The vast majority of workers worldwide (93%) live in countries where certain types of workplaces remain closed, with the most severe restrictions in the Americas. The new Observatory presents three recovery scenarios in the second half of 2020: benchmark, pessimistic and optimistic. It highlights the fact that long-term results will depend on the future trajectory of the pandemic and on the political choices of public authorities. The reference model, which assumes a recovery in economic activity in accordance with current forecasts, the lifting of restrictions at the workplace and a resumption of consumption and investments, forecasts a reduction of 4.9% in working hours lost (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. The pessimistic scenario predicts a second wave of the pandemic and the return of restrictions that would considerably slow down the recovery with, as a corollary, a decrease in hours of work. 11.9% work (340 million full-time jobs). The optimistic scenario assumes that workers will quickly resume their activities, which will significantly boost aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally rapid recovery, the loss of working hours globally would be reduced to 1.2% (34 million full-time jobs).
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