The job market remained solid in June in the United States, with job creations remaining strong, even if they were below expectations, and an unemployment rate down slightly and remaining at low levels. historically low. During the past month, 209,000 jobs were created, the Labor Department announced Friday, while 220,000 were expected by analysts, according to the consensus published by Briefing.com.
In addition, job creations for April and May have been revised downwards to 217,000 and 306,000 respectively, ie, over the two months, 110,000 jobs less than initially announced. “It’s a step in the right direction, but we are clearly not at the level where we need to be to demonstrate that the job market is easing“, estimated the chief economist for the United States of Oxford Economics, Oren Klachkin, interviewed by AFP.
Job creations remain driven by public administration, health and social assistance, as well as by construction, detailed the Department of Labor. At the same time, the unemployment rate is down slightly from 3.7% in May to 3.6% in June, which was expected by analysts and has kept unemployment in the same range for more than a year. year and a half. But, a sign of the current slowdown in a market that is still particularly tight, the average number of jobs created per month over the first six months of the year is significantly lower than the average observed for the whole of year 2022 (respectively 278,000 against 399,000 jobs on average).
It remains, however,a high level and that means more money in the pockets of consumers, while it is their spending that has so far supported the economy“, underlined in a commentary Robert Frick, economist for Navy Federal Credit Union. Especially since at the same time, the average hourly wage continued to increase, by 0.4% compared to the previous month and 4.4% over one year, slightly above market expectations, which were rather considering 0.3% increase over one month.
Rate hikes almost certain
«Wages have remained at a high level, which may be worrying“, while the signs of a slowdown are desperately awaited, for its part reported in a note the chief economist of HFE, Rubeela Farooqi. The labor market participation rate remained stable at 62.9% for the fourth month in a row.
On Thursday, the ADP/Stanford Lab monthly survey announced an unexpected level of job creation in the private sector for the month of June, with 497,000 jobs, well above forecasts, but also above the trend observed in previous months, giving a few cold sweats in the markets, the New York Stock Exchange having ended in the red.
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On Thursday, Wall Street opened slightly lower following the jobs numbers. Investors fear that an overly dynamic job market will prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise its key rates again at its next meeting in late July. “As it stands, as long as inflation does not fall more markedly and the job market does not ease, everything points to a proactive position.from the Fed, Ms. Farooqi said. “Taking into account the current data, I think that a rate hike at the end of the month is almost certain, and it is even likely that we will see more hikes than initially expected by the end of the month. yearMr. Klachkin confirmed.
The Fed has embarked on a more restrictive monetary policy since March 2022 in order to reduce inflation and bring it back to its target of 2%, but the American economy has shown itself to be more solid than initially envisaged and inflation more persistent than expected. While the Fed paused at its last meeting in mid-June, its Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that the next decisions will be made on the evolution of macroeconomic data, anticipating two further rate hikes by the end of end of the year. In May, inflation stood at 3.8% over one year, according to the PCE index published at the end of June, the lowest since mid-2021 but still too high for the Fed.
2023-07-07 14:06:04
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