23 september 2020
21:48
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At the end of the results season, Mithra will publish half-year figures on Thursday. Against the sector trend, the specialist in women’s medicine has had a bad year for the grant.
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Anyone who The Handmaid’s Tale read or seen, knows that few subjects appeal to the imagination as much as our declining fertility rate. In 1950 a woman gave birth to an average of 4.5 children, now there are still 2.4. In Belgium, that average is even lower at 1.7. Population figures in Western countries could halve by 2100, according to a recent study in The Lancet.
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The falling fertility rate is in line with the rising emancipation rate. The more women go to school, pursue careers and switch partners, the longer they wait to start a family and the fewer children are eventually born. Mithra
finds itself as a producer and developer of anti-conception tools in the middle of that sociodemographic (r) evolution and it benefits twice as much. Because in addition to anti-concept agents, the company of the Liège-Italian entrepreneur François Fornieri also develops products for menopausal women. Given the rapidly aging population, this is also a growth market.
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In addition, Mithra, named after the Greek word for vagina, can surf on another important trend. Traditional means of contraception are under increasing pressure. A study by Sensoa shows that the use of contraceptives is on the rise in all age categories, but that the classic pill, the most popular form of birth control since the 1960s, is increasingly forced to abandon an IUD or other alternatives. Young women in particular cite the side effects of synthetic hormones on libido and mood as the main reason. This opens up perspectives for Mithra, who is working diligently on the marketing of its alternative pill ‘Estelle’. Estelle is the first pill that works with a natural and body hormone ‘estetrol’.
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Female fertility is such a hot topic that a whole new cluster is emerging in the technology sector. Mobile applications that focus on monitoring menstrual and ovulation cycles are growing so fast that they have recently acquired their own collective name: ‘femtech’. These are all trends that should give Mithra the wind in its sails, but in reality the path is thornier. The anti-conception market is fragmented and difficult, especially for a Belgian little one, to break into. In addition, investors are not convinced of the clout from distribution partner Mayne Pharma. That Australian company, smaller in market capitalization than Mithra itself, will be responsible for launching Estelle in the crucial American market. Last year, Mayne confused Estelle’s potential peak sales by quoting different numbers than Mithra herself.
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Both in Europe (through Hungarian partner Gedeon Richter) and in America, Mithra is aiming for a commercial launch for Estelle in the first half of 2021, a deadline that is rapidly approaching. Investors will be curious to find out whether the coronavirus interferes with those plans. The first sales performance of the newly commercialized Myring vaginal ring will also be examined. In addition, it is quite possible that Covid19 has weakened the sex life of women and therefore also the demand for contraceptives.
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If the results are better than expected, there is certainly room to score. Mithra is against the pharmaceutical trend and despite an impromptu investigation to use estetrol in the treatment of the coronavirus has fallen sharply on the stock market (see graph). The Liège company, in which Marc Coucke is the main shareholder, has suffered a loss of 34 percent since the beginning of the year. This is largely due to a capital increase of 65 million euros which the company carried through in June resulting in significant dilution.
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