What are the chances that Donald Trump will be convicted? Why is he being charged with hush money administration, and not with something much bigger than the Capitol storming? And can he still become president if he is in prison? Foreign coordinator Matthijs le Loux answers the best and most frequently asked questions that were asked on our response platform NUjij.
Steffi: Why was this case chosen as the first charge? The cases surrounding the election fraud in Georgia, the documents in Mar-a-Lago and the storming of the Capitol are seen by many as more promising.
“Your question gives the impression that there is some kind of central control, as if someone hangs over things and decides which one comes up first. That is not the case: they all run at their own pace. So the answer is simply: the Manhattan’s chief prosecutor was the first to finish his investigation and decided to prosecute.”
Jenny: Can Trump be elected president if he has criminal cases pending?
“Yes. Even if convicted and jailed, he could still run for president. The U.S. Constitution determines eligibility for office: all U.S.-born citizens who are at least 35 years old and have been in the 14 years before lived in the country during the elections. There is no mention of a criminal record.”
“There have been at least two occasions when presidential candidates ran their campaigns from prison. That was Eugene Debs in 1920 and Lyndon LaRouche in 1992. But neither came close to winning.”
“The US Department of Justice has a directive that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted. It will be complicated if Trump wins the presidency while a criminal case is pending against him or if he is in jail. That has never been seen before and there are no guidelines for it.”
Reader: I wonder why Trump was arrested. Why not just subpoena?
“He is accused of (serious) crimes under criminal law and is therefore a suspect. A suspect does not receive a summons, as would be the case in a civil lawsuit or a (compelling) request to testify in a certain case, but is arrested .”
Reesink: Again and again Trump (in this case) claims all sorts of things without providing substantiated evidence. Why is he not asked to provide evidence, or is this covered by freedom of speech? Here in the Netherlands, conspiracy theorists can be taken to court. Isn’t that possible in America?
“In the Netherlands, too, you can in principle shout what you want, provided that you do not harm anyone unlawfully, for example through slander, libel or incitement to violence. That leaves a lot of room to make provocative or factually dubious statements.”
“In the US, the right to free speech is considered even more sacred than here. But it can also be very difficult in our country to legally prove the violations of the law mentioned.”
Hiske: For Trump, this is a fantastic start to his campaign, the ranks in the Republican Party are closing again. Is it clear how the Republicans direct this process behind the scenes?
“I’m not exactly sure what you mean by ‘directing this process’. As far as I know, everything surrounding the actual process is mainly up to Trump and his lawyers. His fellow Republicans mainly respond to developments. For example by support him and attack the Democrats.”
“In the background, of course, the approaching Republican primary also plays. Potential Trump challengers, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, must position themselves carefully as the process garners Trump more support within the party.”
“You can see that DeSantis has a hard time with that. In one breath he condemns the prosecutor in Manhattan and states that Florida would never extradite Trump, and in the other he hints that it is all dubious, hush money payments to a porn star. “
Reader: Opinions on the strength of the charges vary widely. Some lawyers find them very strong, others say they are too weak to reach a conviction. What if Trump uses his right to remain silent (Fifth Amendment) during the trial?
“The Fifth Amendment to the US Constitution revolves around the right not to have to make incriminating statements about yourself. If Trump is heard in person during the trial, it could well be that he invokes his right to remain silent at those times. He will also let his defense be conducted by his lawyers, of course, who will have plenty to say.”
Van Steen: Suppose Trump were eventually sentenced to prison in one of the possible criminal cases against him, how will that take shape? After all, he has Secret Service protection as an ex-president. Do they go into the bin in shifts?
“This is all unfamiliar territory, so the honest answer is no one knows for sure. There is, of course, a lot of speculation about this question. The consensus among the experts seems to be that the Secret Service will indeed be present in the prison if Trump He would probably not go to jail with him, but would be represented in the building, for example in the team of regular prison guards around Trump.”
How is it possible that you are arrested and then can go home after a short time? Is this common or is this an exception?
“In white-collar crime, which does not involve violence, for example, and where the suspect is not regarded as a flight risk, this is not unusual.”
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Reader: If you forget about all the media circus and opinions for a moment: how realistic are the 34 charges and how likely is it that this will lead to a conviction?
“Preliminary: I can’t take the judge’s or jury’s seat, so I won’t speculate on the likelihood of him being convicted. However, I can say something in general about the charges and how they are viewed by legal experts .”
“Prosecutors this week filed a list of 34 alleged felonies. These are payments made by Trump or his company to his then-lawyer Michael Cohen to repay the $130,000 Cohen advanced to silence Stormy Daniels. Those payments were entered in the books as costs for legal advice.”
“Prosecutors say: Giving back hush money and legal advice are not the same thing, so this is accounting fraud: forgery. That seems like a pretty obvious conclusion, and the likelihood that Trump will be found guilty of it increases significantly. In New York State, that counts as a minor misdemeanor. It would probably get Trump fined.”
“Now things get more complicated. If it can be shown that the forgery was used to cover up another crime, that is in theory a serious offense (which can carry years of imprisonment).”
“It appears prosecutors want to argue that Trump paid the hush money to protect his political campaign (which would qualify it as a campaign donation) and then fraudulently concealed it.”
“It is not yet clear exactly which route the prosecutors will use to substantiate that. Chief prosecutor Alvin Bragg talked about New York state (election) laws and federal (election) laws, but did not elaborate yet.”
“Be that as it may, many legal experts say it will be quite a challenge for prosecutors to convince the judge and jury that the forgery charges deserve such an ‘upgrade’ to serious crimes.”
