In a legislative district in a Houston suburb that backed President Donald Trump in 2016, a twice-elected Republican police chief confronts a Democrat who is the son of an immigrant from India. For Democrats, that is seen as an opportunity.
Things are upside down in central New York, where Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi confronts the Republican who ousted two years ago from a district near Syracuse that includes small towns like Binghamton and Utica. Trump easily won there, and Republicans said his place at the top of the ballot will help Claudia Tenney return to Congress.
The story of two districts 2,500 kilometers (1,600 miles) apart highlights that many key House races are dependent on suburban voters. While some in Brindisi are more rural and working class than the more educated and cosmopolitan outskirts of Houston, a primary factor will be how Trump is viewed in the district.
And that is a problem for the Republican Party.
Two years after a 40-seat increase fueled by victories in suburbs prompted Democrats to seize control of the House of Representatives, Republicans’ hopes of regaining the majority are collapsing along with Trump’s approval ratings. Some fear the party will lose seats, an agonizing disappointment of its dream of ever regaining control.
“My fear for Republicans is that there simply are not enough rural voters to make up for the losses they have suffered in the suburbs in recent years,” said former Representative Charlie Dent, who is critical of Trump. “It is certainly possible for Democrats to take more seats,” he added.
Democrats have a list of potential seats, including half a dozen Republican seats in Texas, plus others in Atlanta, Cincinnati, Los Angeles and Phoenix. They hope to win traditionally Democratic areas like Alaska, Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska and Virginia, while expelling Representative Jeff Van Drew from New Jersey, who left the Republican Party last year.
“We continue on the offensive,” said Rep. Cheri Bustos, who heads the Democrats’ campaign organization in the House of Representatives. She did not predict how many seats her party would win.
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