Since the beginning of the summer, the health situation of the France has continued to deteriorate over the weeks. In its weekly bulletin for the week between August 17 and 23, 2020, Santé Publique France stated that the progression of the epidemic is exponential. The dynamic of transmission in strong growth is very worrying.
We speak of exponential growth when it increases over time, and more and more rapidly.
The trend is confirmed in the last weekly report published by the public body, this Thursday, September 3, which even detailed that the time required for the number of cases to double is estimated at 13.8 days.
In other words, the number of positive Covid-19 cases is not about to go down.
Taking into account the evolution of the number of positive cases for Covid-19 weekly, we note that the pace has accelerated since mid-July. The figure rose from 27,826 positive cases, between August 21 and 27, to 36,785 positive cases, between August 28 and September 3. Or an estimated increase of + 37 %
.
This observation should also be put into perspective, since the government continues to develop its policy related to tests carried out every week. Thus the milestone of one million has been crossed over the past few days.
A stabilization of the number of contact cases
Another indicator that shows growth exponential
of the epidemic in France, the 7-day sliding incidence rate of the number of positive tests continues to increase for the eighth consecutive week.
It is shown in red on the graph below and borders on the incidence rate curve for the number of tests in France (in blue). Currently in France, out of 100,000 tests, 63 are positive.
In addition, Santé Publique France indicates that during the past week, the average contact person at risk was 2.3 against 4.3 in mid-July. A sign that the policy of Test-Trace-Isolate
is significantly less effective than before.
As a reminder, a positive person must be able to provide information to people with whom they have been in close contact during the days preceding the onset of symptoms. This process then aims to identify and isolate people themselves who are potentially sick and contagious.
28 departments classified in the red zone
The hexagonal health situation prompted the public forces to classify seven new departments in the red zone, that is, where the virus is circulating. The North, Bas-Rhin, Seine-Maritime, Côte-d’Or, the two departments of Corsica and Reunion Island have been added to the list, which counts now 28 departments in this case.
The beginning of September also rhymed with the start of the school year, and the establishment of a health protocol in schools and other educational establishments, to counter the epidemic. According to a count made by the editorial staff ofWest France at least 34 establishments had to close at least one classroom after having detected one or more positive cases among students.
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