The country, and therefore the national government, are facing at least two very difficult weeks. In the Casa Rosada they have data that infections will continue to increase, the deceased will continue to grow, but at a slower pace -thanks to the vaccination of people over 70 years old- and, in parallel, there is a bump in the arrival of vaccines that could be cushioned in a week. The only possible bridge – they say in the government – is to reduce circulation and, above all, contraindicated meetings and activities.
In Casa Rosada they insist that the governors must take elementary measures. “It cannot be that CABA has not imposed that shops open at 10, thus avoiding the use of transport at the same time as the educational complex,” they say in the government. It cannot be that there are no controls, police in the street, limitations on the capacity of the food courts of the shopping malls, a true offensive against clandestine parties ”. For now there is no decision on new announcements, but things evolve hour by hour and what is not contemplated today – school closings – may be contemplated tomorrow.
Contagion
In the Casa Rosada and in each of the districts they have instruments to diagnose what is coming. One way is the calls to the Covid telephone lines -148 in the Province of Buenos Aires, 107 CABA- because there the citizens take the first step. The report of these lines indicates that cases will continue to rise in the coming days.
Deceased
It is clear that deaths are growing at a slower rate: in this wave they are slightly more than those of January, but half the peak of 2020. This is due, on the one hand, to the influence of vaccination and, on the other, to that the infected are younger. At first glance, it can be seen that there are not dozens of deaths in nursing homes as there were in 2020. The other element that is added is that mortality in intensive care dropped a lot, mainly due to greater experience and training.
Therapies
The critical point is in intensive therapies. Although the numbers are similar to those of last year’s peak, the growth was dizzying and not gradual as in 2020. At that time, that gave the opportunity to empty as much as possible the therapies of non-Covid patients. This time there was no time. It is a process that only started a week ago. “One wave, that of the internees, rose very fast and the other wave, that of the non-Covid internees, went down slowly,” explained a minister. Obviously, this nodal point does not seem to have an immediate solution, but it requires basic measures: postpone all scheduled surgeries that are not essential; reduce hospitalizations due to Covid -with less circulation and fewer infections- and decompress therapies with intermediate therapies. “In the private sector, you take out a non-Covid patient and three and up to four Covid patients enter,” another minister analyzes.
Measures
In the Casa Rosada they say that there are no decided measures or announcement date. Everything happens hour by hour and new measures could take effect today, tomorrow, at the weekend.
One key, they think of the national government, is that the governors and the head of the Buenos Aires government begin to stand firm:
* Change the hours of the shops so that the transport does not coincide with the hours in which children, teachers and school personnel travel.
* Close the food courts of the shopping malls. Control the capacity.
* Exercise real control in bars where people crowd.
* Real control of the municipalities over parties and meetings. The number of events is still huge.
But an escalation of restrictions cannot be ruled out:
* To sports activities
* To everything that is entertainment.
* Even to stop the presence in schools for two weeks.
Vaccines
As is well known, there has been a drought for the arrival of vaccines since April 4, the day on which 497,000 doses of Sputnik V arrived. In principle, with the barrage that occurred in the two weeks prior to that day, there are vaccines to be applied during the next days, maybe until the weekend.
The rumor is that there will be arrivals imminently, although the bump will still be noticeable. The negotiators, Minister Carla Vizzotti and presidential adviser Cecilia Nicolini do not want to report any flight until it is confirmed.
However, the following shipments are pending:
* A new flight to Moscow. It is mentioned that it is being prepared.
* The arrival of the 900,000 doses of Oxford / AstraZéneca from the United States. They are vaccines whose active component was manufactured here, in Garín, Province of Buenos Aires. They are in the last stage of quality control and there are rumors that they will be in Ezeiza in a few days.
* Two million doses of Sinopharm. They are promised for the second half of April. This newspaper could not revalidate in the Casa Rosada if these shipments are confirmed or not.
* Covax Program, of the World Health Organization. They spoke of 400,000 doses for this month. Until now the program has never provided vaccines on time.
It is clear that, in the medium term, there will be the key. There was a fabulous drop in infections and deaths in Israel and now in the United States as vaccination is carried out.
Nothing is easy in the world of the coronavirus and the accumulation of vaccines in central countries. The government is preparing for difficult days, even more complicated than recent ones. The hope is that, with measures and vaccination, the trend can be reversed in the short term.
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