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In short, the process of calculating mortality rates relative to the number of injuries during a pandemic is risky.
This is partly due to a change in numbers The deaths And patients are constantly, while, at the same time, not every case is discovered separately, some cases are so light that they are never noticeable.
Likewise, there can be a large time difference between a person’s injury, death, or recovery.
John Edmonds, a professor at the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at College, said London For health and tropical medicine "What can be said with certainty is that if you divide the number of deaths reported by the number of cases reported, you will surely get the wrong answer."According to what you reported "Reuters".
That was the reason why officials World Health OrganizationThose who said last week that 3.4 percent of people worldwide were confirmed infected with the virus had died, were keen to "Not describing it as a death rate or a death rate".
Kristel Donnelly, a specialist in Diseases University of Oxford and Imperial College London "In the event of an epidemic, it may be a mistake to look at the naive estimate of the number of deaths to the present divided by the number of cases to the present .. This is due to the length of time it takes for the individual from the diagnosis of injury to death".
For a virus Sk The novelty, the time between the onset of illness and death is somewhat important, and it is about two to three weeks or more.
So there is a need to compare the number of deaths at a given point with the actual number of cases a few weeks ago.
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In short, the process of calculating mortality rates relative to the number of injuries during a pandemic is risky.
This is partly due to a change in numbers The deaths And patients are constantly, while, at the same time, not every case is discovered separately, some cases are so light that they are never noticeable.
Likewise, there can be a large time difference between a person’s injury, death, or recovery.
John Edmonds, a professor at the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at College, said London Health and Tropical Medicine “What can be said with certainty is that if you divide the number of deaths reported by the number of cases reported, you will surely get the wrong answer,” according to Reuters.
That was the reason why officials World Health Organization, Who said last week that 3.4 percent of people worldwide were confirmed infected with the virus had died, were careful to “not describe this as a mortality or death rate.”
Kristel Donnelly, a specialist in Diseases At Oxford University and the Imperial College College in London “in the event of a pandemic, it would be a mistake to look at the naive estimate of the number of deaths to date divided by the number of cases to date … this is due to the length of time it takes for an individual to diagnose from injury to death.”
For a virus Sk The novelty, the time between the onset of illness and death is somewhat important, and it is about two to three weeks or more.
So there is a need to compare the number of deaths at a given point with the actual number of cases a few weeks ago.
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