He South Sea of China has become one of the geopolitically hottest areas on the planet, being the potentially most critical dimension of the dispute between United States and the eastern giant. The conflict unfolds amid a tangle of overlapping territorial claims between China and the countries of the region, with Washington permanently promoting “Free navigation operations” and air raids on what Beijing considers its “Sovereign waters”.
The american president Donald Trump has decided to take the conflict with China to an unprecedented point since 1972, when both countries established formal relations. Never since then have relations between the two countries been so bad. Regarding the South Sea, the tension has escalated dangerously in recent days. Since the beginning of the year, the United States has been increasing in number and importance the provocations to China, both in the South Sea and in the East of that country.
During a recent naval exercise by the Chinese Navy, a North American spy plane flew over the no-fly zone. On this occasion, China surprised by accompanying the usual formal complaint with the shooting of two “warning” missiles, a DF-26B from the province of Qinghai and other DF-21D, since Zhejiang. Before the incident, the US had announced sanctions on Chinese companies, arguing that it was a response to the “militarization” of the South Sea by China.
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Neither side is supposed to want to reach an armed conflict, as it would be disastrous for both, under any scenario. But this delicate situation inevitably brings us back to 2001, when a collision of planes from both countries over the Chinese island province of Hainan caused the death of a chinese pilot and resulted in a strong diplomatic conflict, contained thanks to the laborious negotiations between Jiang Zemin and George W. Bush.
Today we are in another world, with a leader in the US who seems to be willing to play all his cards against China, in favor of a re-election that looks increasingly complicated. On the other hand, unlike in 2001, today China is a economic, technological and military superpower. Beijing is not willing to give in one iota in the face of American provocations.
Trump permanently appeals to the many neighbors in conflict with China over maritime limits, including Japan, the ASEAN countries, and of course the “rogue province” of Taiwan. As if that were not enough, it is also in the middle Australia, an important regional actor that, although it has no territorial claims with China, has systematically supported all legal actions against it and participates in military exercises in the area with the United States and other allies. Sino-Australian relations are going through one of their worst moments.
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For its part, China has historically relied on its solid economic interdependence with the ASEAN countries, where it has also been favored by the absence of clear leadership and divergent positions with respect to China within the bloc. Despite having many shared interests, ASEAN has always had a hard time reaching consensus on foreign policy.
In addition, Beijing has just obtained an important diplomatic achievement: the Chinese Duan Jielong was elected for a nine-year term as one of the six members of the strategic International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, despite the strong rejection of the US.
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A separate paragraph deserves the situation of Philippines, where the “Asian Trump” Rodrigo Duterte. This unpredictable and controversial character has constantly oscillated between China and the United States. Duterte assumed power unaware of a failure of the Court of The Hague in favor of the territorial claims of his own country against China, with the aim of betting heavily on a new alliance with Beijing. However, lately he has tried a rapprochement with the US. He said he is willing to invoke his archived defense agreement with Washington “if China attacks its country’s vessels in the South Sea”. Of course, Trump celebrated this turn.
Finally, it should be noted that, fortunately, trade issues seem to move on completely different tracks in relation to maritime tensions. On the one hand, negotiators from China and the US brought relief to the market after confirming that the “Phase 1” agreement signed in January still stands, despite everything.
Furthermore, trade ministers from China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the ASEAN countries will meet this week to resume talks on the “final stage” to launch the Regional Integral Economic Association (RCEP, for its acronym in English). It includes 15 nations and was driven by China as an alternative to the Trans-Pacific Agreement that Trump discharged in 2017. Encouraging signs, considering that in the surrounding seas the waters look increasingly rough and dangerous.
* Master in Chinese Studies. Director of the Sino-Argentino Observatory. Professor of the Postgraduate Program in Contemporary China at the UCA and visiting professor at the University of Zhejiang (China).
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